In Half 1, I mentioned the methodology and assumptions that went into my comparability of the F-150 Lightning, the F-150 Hybrid, and a hypothetical plugin hybrid model of the truck. Now, let’s see how they stack up.
I talk about my strategies in Half 1, however to briefly recap, the manufacturing emissions are primarily based on car weight (not together with any batteries, however together with any ICE components), after which the emissions estimate for the battery pack. From the manufacturing unit, the hybrid model of the truck has the bottom emissions of any of them, adopted by our hypothetical PHEV, and with the 131 kWh battery-only EV model of the car trying the dirtiest.
However, the estimated emissions of the autos inform a distinct story about every truck’s future. The hybrid makes probably the most emissions per mile, at 373 grams of CO2e (per an EPA conversion from 24 MPG). The Lightning has far decrease emissions. The PHEV, with a built-in assumption of getting plugged in 90% of the time (I talk about this assumption extra in Half 1), is noticeably increased than the EV, but it surely’s not a drastic distinction.
Understand that this principally applies to individuals who commute and take the truck out of city on the weekend, or business vehicles that drive lower than 60 miles every day. Customers that fall exterior of this state of affairs will not be represented on this chart’s PHEV line (and I’ll get to these eventualities later).
With limitations in thoughts, what occurs to whole “to this point” emissions as soon as these vehicles hit the highway? Let’s have a look at the graph:
As a result of the hybrid emits a lot extra CO2 in comparison with the facility crops which might be making juice for the Lightning and the PHEV (more often than not), it doesn’t take lengthy for the hybrid to lose the battle for who’s the cleanest. The strains cross earlier than 50,000 miles, after which the vehicles carry on truckin’. The electrical vehicles handily beat the hybrid, and it solely will get worse for the non-plugin hybrid because the vehicles march on to 300,000 miles.
However, the purple and the yellow line appear like an orange line for a lot of the timeline right here. That’s as a result of it takes greater than 150,000 miles for the BEV truck to make up for all the emissions it took for the battery pack to be produced. Even when effectively cared for, the Lightning truck isn’t beating the PHEV truck by a lot at 300,000 miles. Avoiding fuel burning that final 10% of the time simply doesn’t actually make up for all of the carbon that went into making 131 kWh of battery cells for the Lightning.
In This Situation, BEV Vehicles Are In all probability Not Price The Prices In 2023
Should you’re going to plug your truck in each evening, drive lower than 60 miles (30 in winter up north) and spend lower than 10% of your time on journeys the place you’d let the truck act like a hybrid, the emissions aren’t actually going to be higher sufficient for that to be a severe consideration. Plus, the PHEV needs to be quite a bit cheaper than the Lightning (if Ford made one).
On the non-public stage there are a number of drawbacks to the BEV over the ten% plugged in PHEV.
The most important one might be towing. I discover it extra on this article, however the problem is mainly that you simply lose loads of vary when towing. Within the fuel or hybrid truck, shedding vary simply means extra visits to fuel stations, and fuel stations are in every single place. Plus, the fuel station solely takes a couple of minutes whereas a charging station takes anyplace from 20 minutes to 2 hours. Driving the unloaded truck retains charging stops to a minimal, however towing means spending loads of time at these stops.
Worse, you won’t have sufficient vary to get to the following station. This can be a greater downside with towing, however there are numerous rural areas that you simply’d wrestle to get to with at present’s charging networks. Over the following 5 years, this downside will principally go away, because the Infrastructure Invoice places in additional stations. However, that’s 5 years, and in the event you had been shopping for a truck proper now, that’s a major time with out the truck’s full functionality.
On the societal stage, it’s additionally not nice to be getting individuals in large vehicles with large batteries proper now. The factor is, battery provides are nonetheless ramping up for the EV transition. If we deplete the out there provide placing wealthier individuals in large vehicles with large batteries, that leaves no reasonably priced small batteries for the remainder of us. In my hypothetical state of affairs, with a 35 kWh battery changing a 131 kWh battery, that saves nearly 100 kWh for different individuals to have of their autos.
That’s sufficient saved for a Mannequin 3, a Mach-E, or a number of plugin hybrid vehicles, and the environmental value of constructing it a PHEV as a substitute of a BEV is minimal. So, given these decisions, I’m actually hesitant to help the BEV truck. The preliminary environmental prices are simply too excessive to make up for themselves in comparison with the PHEV pushed 10% as a hybrid.
50% Hybrid & By no means Plugged In
Earlier than anyone bites my head off, I do wish to add an necessary caveat to this once more: that is solely true for someone who principally drives on electrical energy and plugs it in on a regular basis. Plugging the truck in and driving it on battery energy solely half the time greater than offsets the BEV’s manufacturing emissions, and by no means plugging it in places it the place the hybrid is (however with the next buy value).
Because of this we must be actually cautious about how we construction incentives with PHEVs. If there’s a profit to a PHEV that somebody can get with out plugging it in, corresponding to entry to carpool lanes, individuals who can’t plug them in will purchase them. In the event that they value greater than the hybrid and there’s no different profit than gasoline financial savings, individuals wouldn’t pay the additional for them until they intend to plug them in. We additionally have to discourage the apply of employers not reimbursing for electrical energy for take-home vehicles which might be plugin hybrids.
That having been mentioned, I’d reasonably see somebody select the PHEV and plug it in half the time than see them simply purchase the hybrid. We aren’t going to get everyone to purchase an electrical truck, however the PHEV could also be a a lot simpler sale. Or, even worse, let’s see what occurs when someone buys the V8 truck:
As you’ll be able to see, the V8 F-150’s emissions depart the chart house the opposite vehicles match on. It takes quite a bit much less emissions to construct it, but it surely spits out emissions so quick that it greater than makes up for it. If someone is purchasing a V8 or a plugin hybrid they’re solely going to plug in half the time, I’d nonetheless reasonably see them select the PHEV and even the hybrid in the event that they’d think about it.
In Half 3, I’m going to try what these charts appear like when you add photo voltaic charging at house to the combination, after which talk about towing.
All chart photos supplied by Jennifer Sensiba.
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