In the intervening time I’m penning this, I’m about 30 hours out from sitting on a stage with individuals whose day job is power for ships, in entrance of an enormous viewers of world technical leaders for a serious European privately owned delivery concern. They’re having their annual technical summit and have invited me to debate with the opposite panelists and their consultants about how delivery will really decarbonize.
After all, as I’ll inform them, there are utterly good causes for them to marvel what the heck I’m doing there. In contrast to just about everybody else within the room, I don’t make, promote, or purchase gasoline for ships. I don’t purchase, promote, or function ships. I don’t design ships as lots of the individuals within the viewers do. I don’t specify the ability necessities for ships, as soon as once more one thing the attendees do.
However I’m there as a result of I’ve carried out for marine delivery what I’ve carried out for aviation, hydrogen, metal, V2G, and grid storage. I’ve spent a bunch of my time wanting on the downside house, evaluating all of the purported options, projecting demand and provide curves ahead in an affordable situation for many years, after which sharing what I believe with supporting proof. Since quite a lot of that is about power, it implies that stuff that I study in a single area is relevant in one other. I can cross-pollinate insights a bit extra simply than individuals who spend all of their time working in a single area.
After all, that implies that I’ve to be actually cautious of not being a number one instance of Dunning-Kruger syndrome, and generally I make errors that individuals name me on, however these are largely manageable issues with solely a small facet order of occasional humiliation.
What does this must do with battery power density? Properly, one of many individuals on stage tomorrow is a consultant of Echandia Marine AB. Their day job is placing batteries in ships, one thing I think about a serious maritime decarbonization wedge. In my 2100 projection, all inland delivery and two-thirds of brief sea delivery might be working on batteries, and people batteries will more and more be charged with low-to-zero carbon electrical energy. The longer hauls will nonetheless want liquid fuels for this century, as changing 16,000 tons of bunker gasoline with batteries to get throughout the Pacific is simply not more likely to occur by 2100.
The Echandia materials makes a really particular marine vary level. Its battery system is nice for 40 nautical miles (NM), about 74 kilometers. That doesn’t sound like a lot, but it surely covers quite a lot of huge boat and ship journeys.
The system makes use of lithium titanium oxide (LTO) batteries. That’s what the corporate considers helpful and salable at this level within the decarbonization journey. That chemistry doesn’t have notably excessive power density, but it surely has good cycle charges and is nice for giant energy draw purposes. Good for marine torque and horsepower necessities at the moment.
Transient nerdier digression: once we speak about power density and batteries, we’re speaking about watt-hours per kilogram (Wh/kg). Diesel runs at about 9,007 Wh/kg. Jet-A aviation gasoline runs about 7,778 Wh/kg. They normally aren’t represented that manner, as a result of individuals who promote or use fossil fuels in transportation don’t use models of electrical energy.
Massive marine and large jet engines are absurdly environment friendly beasts, about pretty much as good because it’s doable to get. Many years of centered innovation, demanding clients, and good engineers will are likely to have that end result. However the Carnot, Diesel, and Brayton cycles have laborious thermodynamic limits that they run up in opposition to. Massive marine engines convert about 50% of the power of their fuels into ahead movement. Fashionable jet engines flip 55% of the kerosene they gulp into helpful power, at the very least when they’re at 30,000-38,000 ft working at optimum cruising pace.
That implies that marine engines get about 4,500 Wh/kg of helpful power out of diesel, and jet engines get maybe 4,300 Wh/kg. The batteries Tesla makes use of have about 269 Wh/kg, and whereas electrical drivetrains are rather more environment friendly, don’t flip all of that into ahead movement, usually round 85%, or maybe 225 Wh/kg. There’s an enormous distinction between 4,300-4,500 Wh/kg and 40-225 Wh/kg. Diesel and Jet-A kerosene are working about 20 occasions as power dense because the batteries Tesla makes use of, given the effectivity variations, and clearly an even bigger issue for Echandia’s LTO batteries.
However there’s a narrative right here that’s value telling. The batteries Tesla makes use of have thrice the power density of LTO, which implies that utilizing the identical batteries in ships, as some individuals are doing already, will end in a variety of about 120 NM with the identical battery sizes. Not rather more thrilling than 40 NM, however a bit extra attention-grabbing.
Lately, two completely different companies made some battery power density bulletins. China’s CATL, the worldwide chief in electrical automobile batteries with 37% of the market, and Amprius, a Silicon Valley startup that’s really delivery battery merchandise, each made claims of 500 Wh/kg, about double Tesla’s power density.
Double Tesla for maritime delivery, and that 120 NM turns into 240 NM. Hmm. That’s overlaying much more sea routes. However we aren’t carried out but.
There have additionally been some very attention-grabbing breakthroughs in, as soon as once more, the USA and China. Silicon is likely one of the holy grail chemistries in batteries. It has the potential for two,600 Wh/KG. After effectivity calculations are factored in, that’s about half of what marine delivery and aviation are getting at the moment. And it’s about 5 occasions what CATL and Amprius have introduced.
For marine delivery, meaning maybe 1,200 NM of vary. And that covers all inland delivery distances and two-thirds of brief sea distances. You gained’t push a container or bulk ship throughout the Atlantic or Pacific with it, however you’ll push a roll-on roll-off (roro) or service provider cargo vessel throughout just about each scheduled route on the planet.
As I’ll be asking the Stena Sphere viewers, “Are there any Stena Line scheduled routes which can be longer than 1,200 nautical miles?” I’m fairly certain, having checked out their scheduled routes on a map, that the reply isn’t any. However I’m not intimate with their enterprise, so there is likely to be one or 5. The bulk, nonetheless, are vastly beneath that.
The batteries will largely be in delivery containers, by the way in which. That’s how main battery storage companies like Tesla, Convergent Power + Energy, and Wärtsilä serving grid and large behind-the-meter deployments ship them now, pre-packaged, configured, and wired, in order that they get positioned on a slab, plugged in, and simply work. As bulk delivery plummets because the 40% of bulk freight that’s fossil fuels drops to a fraction of its present volumes, and the 15% of uncooked iron ore is processed regionally rather more, an excellent larger ratio of marine delivery might be containerized. And container ships and ports already deal with containers that have to be plugged in, though they presently draw energy for refrigeration. Ships and trains will share containerized batteries, they usually’ll be charged largely in transshipment ports, though trains can even have regenerative braking and catenary overhead traces feeding juice to batteries a part of the time.
Okay, in order that’s Echandia at 40 NM, Tesla-for-marine at 120 NM, CATL/Amprius at 240 NM, and silicon at round 1,200 NM. The 240 NM might be in ships subsequent yr or the yr after. Silicon might be in ships in a decade, simply, primarily based on present expertise readiness ranges. Vary anxiousness anybody?
How does this play out in aviation? Properly, Tesla power densities are already good for 300 kilometers of take-off, flying, and touchdown with out divert or reserve power. Numerous companies are utilizing hybrid methods the place sustainable aviation gasoline (SAF) can energy a generator for divert and reserve, in order that they’ll be capable of run on batteries 95% of the time, which is a really strong leap ahead into the longer term.
CATL and Amprius’ announcement places that at 600 kilometers. Silicon places that at 3,000 kilometers. Have you learnt how far aside Gander, Newfoundland, and Eire are? 3,000 kilometers. Yeah, that’s mind-blowing. Expertise that’s been demonstrated at the moment may fly 100 or so souls throughout the northern Atlantic. Therefore my projection that by 2070, crossing oceans might be utterly viable with battery-electric airplanes, and we’ll then spend the subsequent 30 years sunsetting jets that burn gasoline.
What about street freight? Properly, the Tesla Semi is being utilized by Pepsi at the moment. It has a demonstrated, however not third-party confirmed, 800-kilometer vary when loaded with an affordable mixture of stuff. Pepsi has run 800 km with chips, and 640 km with flats of fizzy carbonated bilge water. However let’s use the 800 km of vary. CATL/Amprius bulletins make that about 1,600 km of vary, about half of an enormous US diesel semi at the moment. Silicon provides the potential for 8,000 km, which is simply foolish. What is going to occur as battery power density will increase is that vehicles can have smaller batteries bodily, and this whole silliness in regards to the weight of battery-electric vehicles will wither away.
So to summarize:
- Marine delivery: at the moment 40 NM, tomorrow 120 NM, the subsequent day 240 NM, and in a number of years 1,200 NM
- Aviation: at the moment 300 km, tomorrow 600 km, in a number of years 3,000 km
- Trucking: at the moment 800 km, tomorrow 1,600 km, in a number of years 8,000 km if you wish to be foolish
This isn’t magic. It isn’t even science anymore. That is simply engineering. As David Cebon, the director of the Centre for Sustainable Highway Freight and professor of mechanical engineering at Cambridge, mentioned once we have been speaking final week, it’s about getting electrical energy to the chargers, not the batteries within the automobiles. It’s in regards to the system, not the elements.
The way forward for all floor transportation and an terrible lot of aviation and marine delivery being electrical, low-carbon, quieter, and so much much less smelly is inside attain. It will be impolite to not attain out and seize it with each fingers.
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