Tesla Now eighth Greatest Promoting Auto Model In USA — US Auto Gross sales Up 9%, However Down 11% vs. 2019

It’s time for an additional quarterly report on US auto gross sales. Like just a few different main information shops, I monitor whole quarterly gross sales of the US auto business, however I additionally conduct a radical evaluation of the developments of every automaker. Moreover, I examine final quarter’s gross sales not simply to the identical quarter final yr, but additionally to the identical quarter the yr earlier than, in 2020, and in 2019 — pre-COVID-19. I don’t consider there’s wherever else on the web the place you’ll find such analyses. Let’s dive into the outcomes for the first quarter of the yr.

To start with, trying on the general view, US auto business gross sales had been up 9% in Q1 2023 in comparison with Q1 2022, rising from about 3.2 million gross sales to just about 3.5 million gross sales.* Although, in comparison with Q1 2021, gross sales had been down by 9%. Going again one other yr, into the yr when COVID-19 hit (2020), gross sales had been up 2%, but when we return a full 4 years to Q1 2019, US auto gross sales had been down 11%. Gross sales had been greater than 400,000 items decrease in Q1 2023 than the practically 3.9 million gross sales of Q1 2019.

Except for the comparisons you’ll be able to see on the charts, for the manufacturers, I’m going to deal with Q1 2023 gross sales in comparison with Q1 2022 gross sales after which in comparison with Q1 2019 gross sales.

The manufacturers that noticed very sturdy progress in comparison with Q1 2022 could shock you. They had been led by Acura (+153%), Buick (+99%), Audi (+49%), Tesla (+43%), Infiniti (+40%), Porsche (+34%), and Cadillac (+29%). Properly, a few others had a lot greater share progress — Rivian was up 548% and Lucid was up 206% — however these electrical automakers had simply arrived in the marketplace final yr, so the expansion is warped by that.

Solely 8 auto manufacturers noticed their gross sales drop in Q1 2023 in comparison with Q1 2022. Fiat dropped by a large 59% to simply 138 gross sales (and I’m pondering the model is on the verge of exiting the US market). Alfa Romeo dropped by 27%, to simply 2,390 gross sales. Mitsubishi dropped by 21% and Jeep by 20%. Maybe most shocking and notable, although, is that Toyota dropped by 11%, ending practically 50,000 unit gross sales decrease than in Q1 2022.

What about once we examine to Q1 2019?

Nearly a flip of the 2023 vs. 2022 comparability, solely 11 auto manufacturers noticed their gross sales improve from Q1 2019 to Q1 2023 (excluding Rivian and Lucid, which weren’t producing or promoting autos in 2019). And solely 4 of these 11 automakers had been additionally manufacturers that noticed their gross sales improve from Q1 2022 to Q1 2023 — Cadillac (+1% from Q1 2019 to Q1 2023), Audi (+10%), Porsche (+16%), and Tesla (+407%). Clearly, a kind of manufacturers stands out from the others, and it’s not Cadillac — however kudos to Cadillac for really seeing gross sales progress when most auto manufacturers haven’t. Tesla’s 407% progress is really spectacular, and it resulted in Tesla changing into the eighth greatest promoting auto model in the USA within the 1st quarter. The opposite manufacturers that noticed their gross sales develop throughout these 4 years had been: Chrysler (+1%), Lexus (+2%), GMC (+4%), BMW (+17%), Volvo (+20%), Hyundai (+25%), and Kia (+35%). Briefly, it’s largely luxurious manufacturers which have seen their gross sales go up, however the two Korean manufacturers are actually seeing a robust rise in reputation.

The losers in that 4-year time interval, by way of share change, had been: Fiat (-94%), Dodge (-54%), Infiniti (-54%), Mitsubishi (-50%), Alfa Romeo (-44%), Nissan (-34%), Jeep (-28%), Buick (-26%), Honda (-25%), Lincoln (-24%), Volkswagen (-21%), Ford (-19%), Toyota (-16%), Chevrolet (-12%), Mini (-10%), Subaru (-9%), Acura (-8%), Ram (-6%), and Mercedes (-4%). That’s quite a lot of auto manufacturers bleeding a ton of gross sales.

Generally, I like to look at change on a relative foundation. Nonetheless, it’s informative and vital to have a look at which manufacturers have misplaced essentially the most gross sales on a quantity foundation. The most important drops in quantity phrases got here from Nissan (-111,475), Ford (-108,302), Honda (-82,360), Toyota (-75,619), Dodge (-59,542), Jeep (-58,601), and Chevrolet (-54,260). As you’ll be able to see, solely 4 of these auto manufacturers had been among the many 10 greatest gross sales losers on a relative/share foundation — Nissan, Honda, Dodge, and Jeep.

All in all, it’s a bit exhausting to learn the US auto market in the intervening time. It seems to be rebounding, maybe for the long run, however most manufacturers are nonetheless struggling of their makes an attempt to get again to 2019 ranges.

Lowering attention-grabbing charges would doubtless result in a growth in auto gross sales. If rates of interest had been lower, 2023 gross sales could effectively surpass 2019 gross sales. Nonetheless, there aren’t any indicators the Fed goes to decrease rates of interest any time quickly. The expectation is definitely the other, that the Fed will proceed to lift rates of interest in 2023. We’ll see.

Do you may have any massive predictions for Q2 2023 US auto gross sales developments?