Tesla introduced every week in the past that Giga Texas (its giant manufacturing unit simply outdoors of Austin, Texas) had produced 10 million of the corporate’s new 4680 battery cells. That appears like lots! Properly, let’s be trustworthy, that could be a lot! Nevertheless, it’s in all probability not as many as you’d assume on the floor. It’s important to crunch some numbers so as to get a way of what that actually means when it comes to variety of electrical car battery packs, or extra merely, the variety of Tesla automobiles these cells might energy.
Truly, you don’t must crunch the numbers, as a result of Troy has. Tesla stat tracker, quantity geek, and chart creator “Troy Teslike” has put out his estimates for what 10 million 4680 cells means in a broader sense.
Initially, he notes that “5 million cells per 30 days are sufficient for under 6,038/month Mannequin Y SR or 4,058/month Cybertruck SR.” So, 10 million cells could be sufficient for ~12,000 models of the lowest-range Mannequin Y or ~8,000 models of the lowest-range Cybertruck (when that involves market). That doesn’t sound so spectacular. Additionally, after all, should you wished to incorporate a blended common of longer-range and shorter-range Mannequin Ys or Cybertrucks, the totals could be significantly decrease.
Stepping into the small print slightly additional, Troy Teslike writes, “Based mostly on my calculation, the Cybertruck Commonplace Vary battery pack can have round 1,232 cells and 100 kWh capability. Mannequin Y SR has 828 cells and 67.3 kWh capability.”
And what concerning the greater image? Tesla Giga Texas is meant to supply 4680 battery cells for the Tesla Cybertruck and different Tesla automobiles. “That’s 8% of what Giga Texas wants for Mannequin Y and Cybertruck. So, nonetheless, a protracted option to go,” Troy notes. Somebody requested, “Will Cybertruck additionally have the ability to use 2170 cells?” Troy, after all, doesn’t work for Tesla or know every little thing, however he follows the corporate very intently and will get numerous suggestions. His opinion was easy: “Possibly however there aren’t sufficient 2170 cells both.” Certainly.
With all of that in thoughts, one does marvel if a sluggish manufacturing ramp-up of 4680 battery cells might delay Cybertruck manufacturing additional. Naturally, Tesla might get 4680 cells elsewhere, however the thought was that Tesla Giga Texas would produce the cells and the vehicles. Additionally, whereas Tesla has produced simply 10 million 4680 cells thus far, it might produce 10 million a month in a few months, and 30 million a month not longer after that, and so forth. Or not. We simply don’t know.
So, with this little bit of information, we nonetheless don’t know a lot about the place Tesla shall be a 12 months from now, however including context round what precisely 10 million cells can imply when it comes to car volumes does assist to see the larger image.
What are your ideas on this? How bullish are you on Tesla 4680 battery manufacturing in Texas and elsewhere?
They’re nonetheless late.
Not together with Semi, mannequin 3 and, most significantly, the small automotive.
— MSH (@mesanabinladen) June 17, 2023
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