Our EV & Photo voltaic Goals Have Come True

Join CleanTechnica’s Weekly Substack for Zach and Scott’s in-depth analyses and excessive degree summaries, join our each day e-newsletter, and/or observe us on Google Information!

Word: That is the primary Substack column I’m writing for CleanTechnica’s weekly Substack channel. Sooner or later, I may not publish our Substack columns right here on CleanTechnica.com — I’m doing it this one time to kick off the brand new channel, however want to contemplate what could be finest general. The weekly Substack column will goal to be a reflective piece linked to massive tales of the week. I do know, it’s bizarre to publish some articles there and a few right here, however now we have to glide with the occasions, and this additionally provides us one other place the place persons are acquainted contributing as a paid a subscriber and you’ll assist the general work we do. In a time when publishing is fixed, democratized, and dominated by social media corporations, it’s exhausting as a media firm to make the identical cash on conventional promoting as up to now — we depend on readers turning into supportive subscribers. And that’s what we’d favor to have most of our income based mostly on anyway! As a result of there’s no extra best consumer than our readership. Anyway, on to the primary column….

I’ve been protecting the photo voltaic power business for 16 years, and the electrical automotive business for 13 years. Again in 2009 and 2010 with photo voltaic, and 2012 and 2013 with electrical autos (EVs), it was all in regards to the future. We had merchandise to be enthusiastic about, however it was all about how a lot these merchandise would come down in worth, enhance, and thus develop in quantity. It was all about how phrase of mouth would get round and present folks that solar energy saves you cash and electrical automobiles are extra enjoyable, quieter, extra pleasurable, and can prevent cash.

We lined quite a few forecasts on how solar energy and electrical automotive adoption would develop, and we created a few of our personal. We examined how and once they would hit important tipping factors when it got here to price. Nevertheless … would all of our forecasts and desires really come true? Would the longer term be as full of photo voltaic panels and electrical automobiles as we anticipated?

In the mean time, the final reply is a convincing YES.

True, we aren’t but powered 100% by renewable power, and 100% of auto gross sales will not be electrical automotive gross sales. But it surely’s solely 2025. Final yr, 92.5% of latest energy capability added all around the globe got here from renewable power sources, largely solar energy, however then additionally a great chunk from wind energy. Sure, it might be nice to have fossil gasoline crops shut down extra rapidly, however you possibly can’t get significantly better than nearly 100% of latest energy capability coming from renewable power sources. Solar energy is successful, as we knew it might. The race simply isn’t over but.

Additionally, let’s take note — solar energy prices will proceed to drop! Simply as we’ve been saying for 15+ years, the expertise curve will proceed and solar energy prices will maintain falling. While you’re already dominating new energy installations, the following factor that unlocks is forcing increasingly more present energy crops into retirement — shutting down coal and gasoline energy crops sooner than they have been constructed to be shut down.

With electrical automobiles, 14% of latest automotive purchases in 2024 have been electrical automobiles, whereas 22% had a plug (which means that 8% have been some type of plug-in hybrid). That’s up significantly from the ten% and 16%, respectively, of 2023; or 10% and 14% of 2022; or 6% and 9% of 2021. Sure, the US is trailing. We’re nonetheless underneath 10% EV adoption, massively trailing China and Europe, and even beginning to path some “remainder of world” growing international locations. However even right here, in wayward Trumpland, the EV market is rising quick. From a few dozen mildly aggressive fashions to a number of dozen extremely aggressive fashions, EV selection is increasing quickly, and that can result in increasingly more gross sales. Even in simply the previous few years, we’ve gone from about 30 fashions being in the marketplace in 2022 to about 80 fashions being in the marketplace subsequent yr. About 20% of Cadillac gross sales are electrical, whereas Porsche is at 23%, Acura and BMW are at 16%, and Audi is at 14%. Sure, the luxurious automotive market is electrifying a lot faster — however that’s high quality, or perhaps a good factor. Because the expertise enchancment and prices trickle down, we’ll see increasingly more mass-market EV gross sales. We’re already starting to see the early phases of that with some fashions.

The long run is electrical, the longer term is solar energy, and, more and more, the longer term is now.