Hydrogen for Power Serves Fossil Gas Pursuits Not Local weather Change or Economic system

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The long-running seminar sequence for India’s utility professionals by the India Sensible Grid Discussion board closed with hydrogen. The hype glitter is beginning to tarnish, however there’s nonetheless a number of substance-less shiny noise across the molecule. To that finish, I stepped by the challenges and why hydrogen is nearly all the time a costlier selection than current, commercialized options for power functions.

The video presentation is embedded under, and a calmly edited transcript with slides follows.

Reji Kumar (RK): Good morning, good afternoon, good night to all of the members and it’s our subsequent version of this webinar. We’re completely satisfied to schedule. Now that is on hydrogen. So a lot of you’ve got seen a number of waves of hydrogen, perhaps for the final 30-40 years, totally different waves of hydrogen. And the hydrogen financial system, folks have been speaking about it because the Eighties, so none of them turned very profitable. Billions of traders’ {dollars} have gone down the prepare. There are answers, there are applied sciences, however not competing with different current applied sciences. And at the moment the final wave of hydrogen we began about 5 years in the past, a whole bunch of billions of {dollars} have been dedicated for inexperienced hydrogen which shall be constituted of renewable power by electrolyzers and that hydrogen shall be compressed to -260 diploma centigrade and transported to totally different areas for various use instances. Sounds very power inefficient.

In the event you take a look at the overall power within the worth chain of hygiene manufacturing, together with transportation, folks speaking about operating, actually experimented operating trains, hydrogen trains in totally electrified tracks, issues have gone to that extent. We don’t know who’s guiding this stuff, who’s investing in these applied sciences. And all inexperienced hydrogen manufacturing has, by electrolyzer, concerned essential minerals that are brief in provide. The tasks which have been dedicated and tasks for which funding has been dedicated to finish. And people electrolysis, the uncommon supplies which shall be produced within the subsequent 50 years, might not be enough. And one other research which Barnard had finished early this 12 months says that nearly 99% of the tasks that are introduced, there are not any consumers as a result of it’s very costly.

So he’ll take us by at this time within the webinar concerning the precise economics and dynamics of inexperienced hydrogen. Over to Michael.

Michael Barnard (MB): Thanks, Reji, and as all the time, thanks to the ISGF as nicely for permitting me to take part in a small means in aiding the nice nation of India to search out that path that features each prosperity in your, for all and local weather motion.

So that is an attention-grabbing cowl web page. It’s a grade seven pupil. He’s making hydrogen in a faculty lab as a result of that’s concerning the age, grade seven, round twelve years outdated, the place children make hydrogen in class. And this results in a number of misperceptions. The misperception is, nicely, if children can do it’s low-cost, it’s straightforward, and subsequently it can scale and turn into economically viable in its place. They let it on fireplace. They see the power. Sadly, that leads a complete bunch of individuals down a backyard path. That is really a canopy graphic from a brief story of a devoted hydrogen power researcher that I wrote, which went by each single small backwater of hydrogen and confirmed why all of them had been uneconomic and unviable in comparison with options.

So I’m going to spin you thru a few of the framing slides from that illustration. Often anyone says, nicely, you missed x. And I’m pondering, no, I didn’t. I spent a number of time each a part of hydrogen, partially as a result of it’s attention-grabbing, partially as a result of why are we spending a lot time on it, together with this seminar, when it’s not match for function? Now, notice, that’s hydrogen for power, not hydrogen for industrial feedstocks, which it’s. Final framing piece. Hydrogen at this time is a local weather change downside on the size of all aviation. We use it to refine oil, we use it to make fertilizer, we use it to make methanol, we use it to do a bunch of different stuff. And hydrogen at this time is an enormous carbon bomb.

And so we now have this actual disconnect between fixing a local weather downside versus fixing different local weather issues. So I’m going to start out out with. I’ve created these framework charts. They’re simply little framework charts. They’re quite simple. They’ve a, you already know, continuum. On this case, it’s costly, which goes to be a recurrent theme versus cheaper, and so they have soiled versus clear. So after you take a look at every of those charts, simply have a look on the labels to see what the measurement is. And so that is manufacturing hydrogen. It’s problematic. You recognize, we will have soiled and low-cost, soiled and comparatively low-cost hydrogen. Simply bye. Utilizing steam reformation of pure fuel, or coal fuel, the 2 main strategies, or oil, even any hydrocarbon, to separate the hydrogen out and make a bunch of carbon dioxide, which will get made into the ambiance.

And that’s nonetheless. That’s the most cost effective hydrogen that exists, and it’s 99.9% of all hydrogen manufactured at this time. Now, we will add carbon seize to steam reformation, however that makes it fairly a bit costlier. Then there’s one thing known as pyrolysis, which is definitely thermolysis, as an professional within the know-how advised me lately, the place we put methane right into a sealed chamber within the absence of oxygen, and we warmth it up, and it turns into three tons of black carbon and a ton of hydrogen. So it’s actually a producing mechanism for black carbon, which we don’t want that a lot of, however but once more, costlier than steam reformation of methane. However it’s cleaner. Pure fuel pyrolysis, whereas a lifeless finish, in addition to a lot of the others, is problematic.

After which we even have low carbon electrolysis. In precise low carbon electrolysis, we will’t simply use grid electrical energy, as a result of grid electrical energy isn’t clear sufficient to make it really decrease carbon than simply making hydrogen from pure fuel utilizing the dirtiest mechanism, the grid electrical energy. What we require is a trifecta of additionality. Additionality, which suggests we add the identical quantity of power within the type of renewables to the grid close to the. That we want. For the hydrogen, we want temporality, which suggests the renewables are producing electrical energy similtaneously the hydrogen is required, after which we require locality, which is the hydrogen. The renewables are in the identical area of the grid because the hydrogen is being manufactured.

The explanation for these three necessities is that if we take a unclean grid, like proper now in Europe, Poland continues to be utilizing a number of coal. It has some insufficient plans to get off of them with nuclear, however. And it’ll ultimately be taught that it wants a number of renewables. If folks made hydrogen in Poland utilizing the grid and simply constructed a bunch of wind farms and photo voltaic farms in Spain, the hydrogen manufactured in Poland would nonetheless be filthy, and it could add necessities for electrical energy in a excessive carbon grid, which might be met by carbon sources. That’s why the three causes are there, and so they add challenges when it comes to doing this proper now, it’s an issue for a lot of issues. Then there’s white hydrogen. Proper now, there’s a number of hype about geological sources of hydrogen. However there’s sources, after which there’s confirmed sources. The truth that there’s some hydrogen down there doesn’t imply that it’s recoverable economically, and it doesn’t imply it’s recoverable economically.

And within the volumes which might be required, the largest ones which were recognized are simply not that massive, and so they’re unproven sources. There’s an estimation of how a lot hydrogen is in there, however that doesn’t imply we will recuperate it. To present you a examine and distinction, one of many frequent methods that’s used within the oil and fuel trade is enhanced oil restoration, the place we put carbon dioxide down a tactile oil nicely to unlock a complete bunch of the unrecoverable useful resource that’s in there. Identical factor with hydrogen. It is available in quite a lot of types underground. We don’t know the way a lot we’ll have the ability to get out of it. And most of these sources aren’t wherever close to the place hydrogen is required. That’s an issue.

So sort of the subsequent downside with hydrogen is definitely storing it. The extra this one’s dense versus diffuse, an enormous downside with hydrogen, and cheaper versus costly. The large downside with hydrogen is it’s one of many least dense gases within the universe. It’s proper down there. It’s simply the molecules don’t need to be very shut collectively. They separate and scattered like a pack of kittens you set down, and so they simply all run in several instructions. As a room temperature fuel, it’s extremely diffuse. It’s comparatively low-cost to retailer, however you’ll be able to’t retailer very a lot of it. And that is sort of an issue. You all the time hear the factor. Properly, it’s extremely power dense, however that’s by mass. Sadly, hydrogen will not be power dense by quantity. And the amount is problematic as a result of we will’t think about a hydrogen automobile. We are able to’t tow a zeppelin balloon just like the Goodyear blimp stuffed with hydrogen behind a automobile. We have now to compress it down.

And in order that will get to the conventional course of, which is pressurizing it to 350 to 700 atmospheres of stress in particular tanks designed for that, utilizing particular compressors. And this can be a downside space that most individuals don’t take into consideration. Most individuals don’t take into consideration compressors, however compressors have gaskets and internals, and the upper the pressures, the extra exactingly they need to be machined, the higher the tolerances need to be. The costlier the supplies need to be. And the extra, the smaller the molecules that they’re compressing, the upper. The extra. The costlier the supplies, the costlier the tolerances, the costlier the machining. And so hydrogen, as a result of it’s such a diffuse fuel and requires such excessive pressures, really has the costliest compressors round for 700 atmospheres of stress. These items are non trivial equipment.

I did an evaluation of California’s hydrogen refueling stations, and so they had been seeing vital failures, 50% of which had been associated particularly to the compressors. Failing gaskets go on compressors for hydrogen on a regular basis and have to get replaced. They’re not low-cost. They’re one of the crucial costly elements on this course of. They’re up there when it comes to expense with the very costly storage mechanisms, with the very costly storage mechanism we’re right here. So this nonetheless isn’t very dense. A Toyota Mirai has nearly 5 kilograms of hydrogen, the power equal of about 5 gallons of gasoline in a tank, at 700 atmospheres. It’s fairly a outstanding testimony to security engineering that none of them have exploded like a kinetic bomb. So it’s fairly fascinating. So folks have been in search of different options. Liquid natural hydrogen carriers have been found and been round for a very long time.

They lock hydrogen into one thing that’s extra dense, a liquid, and it’s costlier, and it’s gradual to get in, it’s gradual to get out, and it’s extra energetic necessities. Equally, liquid hydrogen, chilling it right down to about 20 levels above absolute zero, is viable and we do it, however it’s additionally costlier. It creates larger density. However then you’ve got one thing which is 290 levels under what we take into account a snug temperature. Properly, though I’m chatting with an viewers in New Delhi the place 30 levels Celsius is taken into account a snug temperature. So it’s 300 levels under what you take into account a snug temperature, and it boils off, and it’s extremely problematic. Then we get to metallic hydride storage, the place it locks it right into a metallic substrate, and that’s much more costly and extra problematic when it comes to getting the hydrogen out and in.

Every of those will increase the quantity of power required to do that. For instance, liquid hydrogen, about 30% of the power that’s saved as liquid hydrogen is. Is required to show hydrogen into liquid hydrogen. So that is a part of the issue. Each time we open up a part of the issue of hydrogen, it simply will get an increasing number of costly to resolve the issues. And there’s an increasing number of issues. There are answers, however they’re not low-cost options. And expense issues as a result of hydrogen is competing with different options. It’s competing with direct grid tied electrification. And, you already know, for these, I’m certain the entire folks on this name know that India is on observe to have its heavy freight rail totally electrified with overhead wires. This 12 months, Reji talked about rail. Properly, guess what? We’ve been electrifying rail straight for over 100 years. That is trivial know-how.

We all know learn how to do it. We all know learn how to ship the power that means. Hydrogen doesn’t have a play there, and but folks make the assertion. Equally for vehicles, batteries, or warmth pumps, et cetera, et cetera. They usually’re all less expensive. All these approaches which might be options to hydrogen are less expensive and extra dependable than utilizing hydrogen.

So there’s shifting it round. Transferring your hydrogen round as a result of it’s as soon as once more so diffuse is one other place the place it’s costly. The one low-cost solution to transfer hydrogen round is to ship the feedstocks, water, and electrical energy, within the case of inexperienced hydrogen, pure fuel, within the case of unabated grey hydrogen, to the place the hydrogen is required. And to be clear, 85% of all hydrogen consumed globally at this time, about 100 to 120 million tons we manufacture, 85% is manufactured on the level the place it’s used.

And that’s as a result of shifting it round is absolutely costly. The subsequent most cost-effective means is hydrogen pipelines, and that is nonetheless cheaper, by the way in which. I’ll simply say that making hydrogen the place it’s used, we use none of it for power at this time as a result of options, together with simply utilizing electrical energy straight, are nonetheless cheaper on a per. You recognize, choose your. Choose your unit of power on a per BtU, on a per MMBTU, on a per megajoule, per kilowatt hour. It’s all the time cheaper to make use of the pure fuel or the electrical energy straight relatively than make hydrogen after which use the hydrogen for power, you already know, that’s why, you already know, the mass majority of hydrogen autos on the planet at this time are utilizing grey hydrogen, and it’s costing them wherever from $15 to $35 per kilogram to replenish. It’s simply not low-cost. However hydrogen pipelines exist.

There are a few of them in Germany, within the industrial space, the place they go from a steam reformation facility to a plant, and there’s some in the USA the place they go from steam reformation crops to refineries. However these hydrogen pipelines in Germany carrying fossil hydrogen, that’s unabated, they’re charging $6 to $8 US per kilo for that. And that’s the most cost effective hydrogen that may exist. The pipelines aren’t very lengthy. They’re industrial scale pipelines carrying industrial scale volumes of hydrogen, and but it’s nonetheless $6 to $8 per kilogram for that hydrogen. After which we get into different an increasing number of costly methods to maneuver hydrogen round. Hydrogen tube vans, principally carrying pressurized gaseous hydrogen. Properly, you want about 14 of them to hold as a lot as a diesel gas tube truck, and that’s simply not a possible or practical solution to ship hydrogen.

Liquid hydrogen tankers, liquefying hydrogen and placing it in tanks that drive on roads with faculty buses, is definitely being significantly proposed. And to be clear, we do it, however we do it in very particular circumstances the place we want liquid hydrogen as the one factor that can work. And really specifically educated folks ship that at excessive value. Then there’s the proposal of the liquid hydrogen service, liquid natural hydrogen service tankers, whether or not that’s, you already know, ammonia or one thing else, you already know, another service. And I simply maintain stepping on the energetic amount of this stuff. It simply will get very costly.

I labored out that if we shipped ammonia, for instance, it could be 9 instances as costly per unit of power for Japan because the coal it’s supposed to interchange. That’s with dust low-cost hydrogen. And each good thing about the doubt is simply costly to ship hydrogen. So we don’t do it at this time, and we’re not going to do a lot of it tomorrow. Then there’s hydrogen tanker ships, the place folks suggest to liquefy hydrogen and put it in tankers, and anyone’s demonstrated that it’s simply extremely costly. I labored out that it could be 5 instances as costly for delivery as liquid pure fuel in a single case. So that is sort of the issue. It’s less expensive to ship electrical energy to locations than it’s to ship hydrogen to locations. And the wires principally exist already the place we really want power, we have to beef them up. We have to beef up the transformers and converters, however that’s simply the character of the beast.

Then there’s security and the way we really use hydrogen. You don’t hear many tales, though some, about hydrogen failures.

One of many massive causes is that principally we make hydrogen the place it’s utilized in industrial settings, the place folks know learn how to use hydrogen safely, and so they have hydrogen sensors, and so they have all kinds of security procedures. However even there, I feel it was Linde, one of many massive hydrogen suppliers in Europe, lately had somewhat little bit of a security downside. You might need heard about it just because there’s a lot of information lately about folks not with the ability to get hydrogen. So hydrogen fleets being suspended, like hydrogen trains in Germany are unable to run as a result of they will’t get hydrogen. Hydrogen vans and hydrogen faculty buses and hydrogen vehicles are begging for hydrogen as a result of there’s no hydrogen. And why?

Properly, as a result of a tanker of gaseous hydrogen in a Linde plant that was being full of hydrogen for supply to a fueling station, had what’s known as a deflagration occasion, which is a subsonic explosion. Principally, it caught fireplace and exploded, which is an issue with hydrogen, extra so than with diesel or gasoline. They usually had some injury that blew out a number of home windows inside a major radius and broken a few of the facility. In order that they needed to shut it down and so they needed to recall all of the tube tankers security checks. And in order we get from right here, secure up right here, secure, making hydrogen the place it’s used unsafe, just about every little thing else is questionable, viable versus unviable when it comes to utilizing hydrogen as an power service. So liquid hydrogen, liquid hydrogen, truck refueling.

You recognize, Daimler is exploring this with Linde in Europe, and it’s only a foolish thought. Transferring liquid hydrogen round in vans to place into different vans, to drive round on highways to hold Kleenex is simply not a smart thought. Once we can simply use electrical energy and batteries, that’s vastly safer and far much less prone to explode. I simply learn an evaluation of 1 proposal for a liquid hydrogen for a hydrogen refueling station in Europe, the place they superimposed the protection setbacks for people lives not being misplaced and vital infrastructure injury not occurring as two radiuses round this factor, and appeared on the variety of residences and buildings round that. And but this proposed hydrogen refueling station security wasn’t even a requirement of the remit. Hydrogen is a extremely explosive fuel. We use it industrially, in giant portions, the place we now have particular security measures in place.

And like many harmful substances, we all know how to do this. We all know how to do this in industrial settings with extremely educated folks, not in fuel stations and never round different folks. We don’t put large quantities of ammonia beside a faculty. We shouldn’t put large quantities of hydrogen beside a faculty both.

Hydrogen for constructing warmth. That’s only a weird idea. I simply spent 90 minutes speaking with one of many world’s consultants on pure fuel in properties, and pure fuel leaks on a regular basis. He. He’s the chair of the International Carbon Venture, which yearly produces the emissions and budgets for all greenhouse gases, their carbon finances, their methane finances, and now they’ve a hydrogen finances.

And a part of his analysis traditionally has been to measure pure fuel home equipment in residences to see how a lot methane is being emitted, but in addition what number of different pollution are being emitted. Now, the methane leakage is already vital. Methane slippage from issues that burn methane, you already know, unburnt methane popping out of issues that are theoretically burning it, is kind of excessive, however methane really doesn’t explode that simply. It solely explodes simply sufficient that 4000 buildings a 12 months are considerably broken or destroyed in pure fuel fires and explosions in the USA. Now, 4000 in opposition to a constructing inventory for a rustic of 330,000,000 folks, perhaps that doesn’t sound like a lot, however hydrogen, per the very best evaluation accessible with security measures, can be 4 instances as prone to have explosions and unsafe circumstances as methane as a result of the molecule is smaller. You recognize, our infrastructure that’s delivering fuel to properties will not be designed for tinier molecules than methane. And hydrogen is simply the Houdini of molecules. It likes to get out of locations. It likes to embrittle stuff.

Equally, hydrogen security, placing 20 diploma Kelvin hydrogen within the fuselage, the place it could be required due to the character of aerodynamic balancing contained in the fuselage with human beings, is only a recipe for a catastrophe. It’s simply very tough to sq. the protection of human passengers with liquid hydrogen as a gas. And but individuals are significantly reporting it. It’s a kind of instances the place it’s uncertifiable and certification and aviation is essential. So whereas there’s a number of dialogue about it it’s simply not going to occur.

And ammonia as a delivery gas. That’s a recipe for catastrophe as nicely. Ammonia, which is one nitrogen, three hydrogen, burns cleanly, which is to say it burns with out emitting greenhouse gases, however with a lot of nitrous oxides. Ammonia, because it sits, is poisonous to people. And when it mixes with water, which ships are round, it turns right into a extremely corrosive substance, which, if we breathe, will destroy our lungs. After which after that, it turns into a unique substance, which is simply unhealthy for human well being and for wildlife well being. So ammonia as a delivery gas, as a hydrogen power service, is a non starter. It’s a ship that received’t float. And it’s simply outstanding to see the quantity of consideration that it will get. So security is a priority and it provides expense.

We are able to do any of this stuff with an inexpensive diploma of security and limitless lack of human life. However it prices an terrible lot greater than options to realize security with these applied sciences, which provides to the shortage of viability, then, for floor transportation, costly, cheaper, inefficient, environment friendly.

Let’s simply take a look at the options right here up right here. Hydrogen gas for trucking. Properly, hydrogen gas for trucking. As soon as once more, we’re seeing $15 to $35. That’s for grey hydrogen delivered to vans.

The refueling stations in California are an abject lesson. They’ve 55 refueling stations for public autos. And people refueling stations as of 2021. I did the evaluation of their highest use, most mature interval that was public report, which was six months in 2021, after 5 to 6 years of operation. And I discovered that the hydrogen refueling stations had been out of service for 2000 extra hours after they had been pumping hydrogen.

Hydrogen refueling stations fail continuously as a result of it’s onerous to retailer and pressurize hydrogen. As soon as once more, these compressors go frequently. This provides to the associated fee. The price of delivering hydrogen to refueling stations is a really vital addition to the associated fee. Farming of power did a research and stated the price of simply delivering hydrogen by tube truck to a refueling station would add $8 to $10 to the price of the hydrogen. So it doesn’t matter what it prices to make the hydrogen, it doesn’t matter what it prices to pump the hydrogen, and to take care of the price of the low reliability of refueling stations. It’s $8 to $10 per kilogram simply to get the hydrogen to the refueling station. It’s as soon as once more non viable.

Hydrogen buses have comparable issues. I did an evaluation of California’s bus fleet as a result of they’ve been experimenting with this. There are pockets of irrationality round hydrogen. Their hydrogen buses are 50% much less dependable than their diesel buses and twice as unreliable as their battery electrical buses. Diesel buses shall be out of service for x hours. A hydrogen bus shall be out of service for x hours instances 1.5. So one and a half instances the hours out of service as a result of they’re simply not working. Gas cells are finicky issues. A gas cell requires pure hydrogen at a particular time, you already know, moderately temperature, with no pollution like water or different substances. It requires pure air. It requires air that’s bone dry and freed from pollution.

Attaining that in a bus or a truck that drives by metropolis streets with all of the particulate matter and the entire air air pollution in cities, it has to filter that right down to hospital grade working theater air high quality and temperature to ensure that the gas cell to not degrade and fail quickly. Buses in Spain that had been delivered, nicely, by chance, some coolant from one other a part of the drivetrain acquired into the gas cells and destroyed the gas cells fully. And the buses have by no means moved. So there’s 5 buses, I overlook the town in Spain, it’s not Barcelona, it’s one of many different ones, however they acquired buses and so they’re simply sitting there. They’re bricks. It is a downside with hydrogen. It’s simply onerous to make issues work. We are able to do it, however they’re much less dependable than options. And reliability provides cash.

Hydrogen powered trains, identical factor. I’ve talked about trains, principally. Overhead wires, batteries for the bits that may’t be finished. It simply is sensible. India is up to now forward of the remainder of the world, even forward of China on electrifying trains, that I received’t speak about it.

And naturally, down right here we now have the options. Properly, can we now have battery energy vans? Sure, and we do. Can we now have battery electrical buses? Sure, and we do. Can we now have electrical trains? Sure. They usually’re environment friendly and cheaper. And so, you already know, as soon as once more, it’s a contest. Hydrogen will not be the one solution to do most issues, and it’s actually not the one solution to do issues in power. And each time we ask the query, we now have to say, what are the options? Are they economically advantageous? And the reply is all the time sure.

Then there’s maritime delivery, one other purported space. So costly, cheaper, viable, unviable. Again to ammonia powered delivery. I’ve talked about this. It’s nuts. Then there’s liquid hydrogen powered delivery. I’ll say this. I spend a number of time trying on the maritime trade. I spend a number of time speaking to maritime professionals about repowering stuff. I’ve been flown to Glasgow to debate maritime decarbonization. I’ve spoken to folks on the Maersk McKinney Institute for Maritime Decarbonization. Individuals from the Wallenius group simply interviewed me for what must be finished round maritime delivery. And I’ve acquired a projection of maritime delivery decarbonization by 2100. I’m removed from professional, however I’m pretty deep on this topic. And the factor I’ll say is a bunch of suppose tanks are speaking about liquid hydrogen and the maritime trade is ignoring liquid hydrogen. Yeah, they’re not silly.

They take a look at it and go, wait, you need us to do what with that stuff? And also you need us to energy ships with that? That’s simply foolish, man. Like perhaps Maersk does it and we discover out that it’s low-cost. However till then, please go away. No person is utilizing liquid hydrogen to energy ships. And but suppose tanks maintain proposing it.

Methanol as a delivery gas. Methanol is principally wooden alcohol. It’s a kind of alcohols that when you drink it, you go blind and die. So don’t do this. And it’s a reasonably frequent industrial substance at this time and a local weather change downside at this time. And it does burn modified ship engines like an alcohol would. It’s really okay, however it’s solely about 45% the power density of maritime variable sulfur gas oil. It’s costlier, so it’s competing with options. And the options embody battery powered delivery.

Proper now there are a few 700 unit container ships crusing the Yangtze on thousand kilometer routes which might be operating on batteries. They’re batteries in containers which might be winched out of the ship, placed on shore to be charged, plugged in, identical to fridge vehicles. Fridge containers and charged fridge charged battery containers are winched onto the ship and plugged in simply the identical means fridge containers. Reefers are at this time. And batteries are slowly taking up the underside finish of delivery. They usually’re going to all inland delivery, most brief sea delivery. My projection is that battery hybrid delivery with biodiesel will take over your complete area for batteries. We’ll run the ships in ports and nationwide waters to reduce air air pollution and noise air pollution for all of the residents and the marine life close to shore and crossing oceans. They’ll burn biofuels.

And the biofuel, I anticipate, shall be biodiesel. There’s arguments which might be affordable to counsel that we’ll find yourself with methanol, biomethanol as a delivery gas, however we actually received’t find yourself with methanol synthesized from inexperienced ammonia. Biomethanol is less expensive than methanol synthesized from inexperienced ammonia. So we’re not going to finish up utilizing synthesized methanol or any synthesized gas. It simply doesn’t make any sense as a result of it’s costlier and no person’s going to pay extra for one thing which doesn’t do extra. And artificial methanol doesn’t do greater than biologically sourced methanol.

So aviation, costly, cheaper, certifiable, uncertifiable. Now, certifiable doesn’t imply they’re loopy. It doesn’t imply we’re placing them into an asylum to help them to recuperate their psychological well being, to search out the appropriate temper stabilizers and prescribed drugs and speak remedy to help them to reintegrate with society.

It signifies that operators can fly a licensed machine with human beings inside it as a industrial service, or they will fly machines with packages inside them as a industrial service over locations the place there are folks. So every little thing above tiny plane must be licensed. Need to be licensed by nationwide aviation boards. Most aviation boards globally respect and undertake a certification. If the FAA does it or EASA does it, then many simply respect and undertake these and say the nationwide certification boards undertake these. I’d say if there are any aviation folks on board from India related to India’s equal of the FAA, it is best to actually rethink grandfathering FAA licensed planes as a result of the FAA was captured by Boeing, and it’s only a actual downside space proper now in aviation. However certification is required, and it’s costly.

It’s an n-times-n course of that claims you must manufacture, design planes in a sure means, manufacture planes in a means that’s secure, after which take a look at all of the failure circumstances in an n-times-n means in flight assessments to show {that a} aircraft received’t fall over the sky and kill folks. The Boeing Max disasters that killed a whole bunch of individuals had been a failure of certification as a result of Boeing captured the FAA through the years. However as we undergo these, battery powered aviation is straightforward. We all know the failure circumstances of batteries and batteries to electrical motors have nearly no shifting elements. An n-times-n certification course of for a quite simple plane, like a battery, electrical one is less expensive than a extra complicated one.

Biofuelled aviation simply replaces kerosene that’s used at this time with biologically sourced kerosene that’s really very easy to certify as nicely, as a result of it’s only a frequent pathway, the identical molecules, totally different sources, and each main, producer, civil aviation plane, is certifying their planes on certifiable aviation, unsustainable aviation gas that come from biofuels at this time. We identical to, take a look at the frequent carriers. They’re all doing it. We’re bunkering, you already know, hundreds of thousands of tons of biofuel, sustainable aviation fuels at this time.

Now, up right here, efuels. That is artificial kerosene constituted of inexperienced hydrogen after which mixed into making the attributes of kerosene. Kerosene being a sort of a classifier of attributes, not an actual particular chemical formulation. And you are able to do that. It’s simply actually costly. It’s straightforward to certify as a result of it’s actual, it’s nearly similar to the jet gas that’s used at this time. It’s simply as certifiable as biofuel powered aviation.

However it’s simply going to be actually costly. Biofuels are two to a few instances as costly as present fossil fuels. Generally, e fuels are 4 to 6 instances as costly. And if a service has the choice between, if it’s compelled to pay two to a few instances, that’s one factor, however they’re not going to pay 4 to 6 instances if they’ve a two to a few instances value different. So let me recover from into stuff that simply doesn’t make any sense. Hydrogen fuel and liquid hydrogen. The failure circumstances are so excessive and the design transformations for aviation are so excessive to keep away from failure circumstances as a consequence of these issues, simply make it a non viable to certify.

I’ll say that the certification folks have to be having a area day, as a result of usually they’re over right here in very well trodden pathways, they’re filling in checklists which were stuffed in a whole bunch and 1000’s of instances earlier than. Over right here, day by day they discover a new means for an airplane to go growth or fall into the sky and kill lots of people, and so they need to give you assessments to validate that it received’t happen. That’s an thrilling factor for the certifiers to do, which is why the certification businesses are spending a lot time on it. However that doesn’t imply it’s going to result in certification for plane. So you may get actually costly, uncertifiable plane, or you may get plane that look so much like those at this time, and battery electrical ones, and get there and remedy the local weather downside.

So then there’s warmth. I’ll simply say that burning hydrogen to make warmth works. No person does it at this time as a result of it’s actually costly. There’s some stuff you must change that traits of the flame are totally different. It’s important to change a bunch of stuff. That’s all simply pretty minor engineering, however it’s costly. In the meantime, folks say, what about excessive temperature warmth? Properly, electrical plasmas, we now have the temperature of the solar below our management with commoditized know-how we will ship at this time and combine into warmth. Electrical arc heating, we already use that for metal manufacturing. EMF heating, resistance heating, as much as 600, 800 levels Celsius. I talked to the previous chief technical officer of Kanthal, now the EVP for international enterprise growth, a few years in the past. Yeah, their product is only a resistance heating factor that goes to 600 to 800 levels.

Thermal storage, now infrared heating. We have now district heating and cooling. We have now warmth pumps. Each single vary of heating could be finished with electrical energy. It might not be trivial or cheap to alter one thing which is designed for fossil fuels to run on electrical energy, however all new amenities must be designed from the bottom as much as run solely on electrical energy. Matter of reality, after I communicate to Paul Martin, all of them are. It’s solely when the enterprise case is dedicated that they add fuel the place it’s essential to make the enterprise case. And in order we transfer ahead right into a decarbonized world and carbon pricing applies to fossil fuels, these applied sciences are all there. They’re all industrial at this time. They’re all fully dependable, commodified issues. We’re simply not utilizing them as a result of burning fossil fuels and utilizing the ambiance as an open sewer is cheaper. Hydrogen doesn’t have a play right here. It’s simply all the time going to be costlier and so much tougher and so much much less secure than simply utilizing electrical options.

So then grid storage, identical downside, hydrogen grid storage, it’s “I’ve a hydrogen molecule. What else can I do with it?” It’s like having a Swiss military knife. Oh, what does this little blade do? Oh, it’s an extended period power storage. Yeah, hydrogen for lengthy period power storage. Properly, no, for shorter period storage, we now have cell primarily based battery grid storage. Large, enormous market lately. Very profitable. We have now redox circulate applied sciences, that are commercializing at this time. I sat on the advisory board of 1. We have now pumped hydro, which is rising radically.

Within the grid storage dialogue, I identified how huge the useful resource India was advisable to the ISGF, that they reopen the research into grid storage as a result of off river, closed loop grids, pumped hydro grid storage is very easy to construct and it’s match for function. Then we now have biomethane. We had this massive downside. A part of the explanation I used to be chatting with the top of the worldwide carbon venture, Rob Jackson, this week was as a result of we’re emitting large quantities of excessive international warming potential methane at this time from our agricultural meals waste stream processes. Rice farming, for instance, India, but in addition meals waste. We throw away a full third of the meals we manufacture yearly that leads to landfills or middens, the place it’s piled, decomposes anaerobically and creates methane. So our land administration processes are produced, for instance, beef cattle and ruminants, with their belching of methane from their digestive processes.

Properly, the methane from that supply is twice as massive because the methane emissions from the fossil gas trade, which have been climbing radically. We have now to reduce our biomethane as a result of it’s an enormous international warming downside. And my idea is we simply seize it at level sources like dairy barns and landfills and different stuff, and we fill our strategic pure fuel reserves with biomethane as a substitute. After which once we want that strategic reserve of fuel, of power, we simply burn biomethane. I feel that makes much more sense than manufacturing hydrogen. But when hydrogen finally ends up being the foolish factor, if folks begin manufacturing salt caverns and creating, you already know, coping with all that, it’s the. It’s not essentially the most urgent downside.

We have now applied sciences for every little thing, besides we’ve acquired commercialized, generally used, very dependable applied sciences for every little thing besides strategic power shops for lengthy regional outages of wind and photo voltaic.

This all turns into my hydrogen demand projection by 2100. You’ll discover that not like each different hydrogen demand projection you’ve ever seen, it goes down as a result of inexperienced hydrogen is much more costly than unabated grey hydrogen. Blue hydrogen is double the price of unabated present hydrogen. That signifies that because the feedstock value goes up for industrial processes, the place we use it, our expectation of utilizing it, folks will discover options. There are options to hydrogen in some instances. In different instances, there are not any options. But when the associated fee goes up, folks will say, nicely, how else can I obtain the identical outcomes? Oh, nicely, let’s do this.

However much more, take a look at this massive chunk right here, these two classes. The most important customers of hydrogen at this time are oil refineries. They use it to strip impurities out of hydrogen, like sulfur. They usually additionally use it to crack hydrogen into, or crack crude oil into lighter and heavier parts. The heavier and the upper sulfur, the crude, which is to say Alberta oil sands crude, the extra hydrogen you must use. For mild, candy crude, you must use a kilogram or a kilogram and a half per barrel of oil, for Alberta’s product you must use seven or 8 kilograms per barrel of oil. We’re going to cease extracting and refining a number of our oil. We’re going to get right down to solely extracting oil for petrochemicals. And the petrochemicals, the oil we’re going to extract is generally going to be lighter, low sulfur, as a result of we now have a lot of oil.

So we’re not going to be consuming almost as a lot hydrogen in oil refineries. And that’s going to occur pretty rapidly. The heaviest, lowest high quality crudes, like Venezuela’s and Alberta’s, shall be first off the market. In order that’s going to plummet. That is fertilizer, the subsequent greatest demand space. And we now have options for lots of fertilizer. Low tillage agriculture requires much less fertilizer. Drone primarily based crop spraying of fertilizers requires so much much less fertilizer. Agrigenetics is displacing fertilizer additions with genetically modified microbes, which exist already within the soil, which already repair nitrogen within the soil for crops. However they’ve a nitrogen sensor. They only flip off the nitrogen sensor, and it simply retains making extra nitrogen on the roots of crops. It’s very environment friendly.

Final time I spoke to Karsten Temme, the PhD geneticist who heads Pivot Bio, they had been on the level the place they had been seeing 1,000,000 acres of corn below administration in the USA, and so they’re lowering fertilizer necessities by 25%. Their aim is 100% throughout rice, corn, and grain by 2030, stretch goal, however a extremely good sound chunk. So we’re going to be pulling all these levers, as a result of fertilizer goes to get costlier as we decarbonize fertilizer, an enormous local weather downside at this time as a result of it’s constituted of pure fuel. Pure fuel turns into hydrogen. We put the hydrogen into the Haber Bosch course of to mix with air from the ambiance to make ammonia to make fertilizer. We’re going to scale back that. So vital declining calls for within the greatest supply demand areas for hydrogen.

Metal is a possible space. I’ve at the moment acquired it there. Making hydrogen, making new metal with hydrogen. Properly, the hydrogen replaces coal in lowering the iron ore, which de rusts it principally into iron. That’s all it does. And there’s a requirement level there. However we now have options there which might be direct electrification, Boston Metals and Fortescue utilizing molten oxide electrolysis obtain the identical outcomes with no hydrogen step. And principally anywhere the place they can’t use hydrogen, as we now have a substitute for hydrogen, we’re most likely going to make use of it. It must be cheaper. And so proper now I’ve elevated demand for hydrogen for metal making in my projection, however that’s in danger. In the long run recreation I feel we’re solely going to have 80 million tons of hydrogen that we use in our financial system, versus the below 120 million tons that we use at this time.

We nonetheless have to scrub it up. It’s nonetheless an enormous local weather downside space. We nonetheless want all of the work on electrolysis for this market of pricey hydrogen.

That’s it. Let’s speak. Any questions, Reji?

RK: I’d request you to provide the most recent standing of the introduced inexperienced hydrogen tasks and consumers, the dedicated consumers and what timber, what share of whole tasks that are financially near tasks that are below some stage of growth or development, and who’ve signed as much as purchase the inexperienced hydrogen. At what value? What statistics do you’ve got?

MB: So a 12 months in the past, Boston Consulting Group revealed with Oxford International Initiatives a sort of a white paper on learn how to make inexperienced hydrogen tasks as low threat as potential. Not low threat, simply decrease threat. They usually included a bunch of statistics, about 1300 tasks that Boston Consulting Group had of their database. These 1300 tasks, I feel it was solely 0.7% by tonnage really reached ultimate funding resolution and operation. It was solely 5% by variety of bulletins, however solely 0.7% by tonnages really reached ultimate funding resolution. So we don’t have a scenario the place they’re getting by, as a result of as they undergo ultimate funding resolution, due diligence, they really need to put actual numbers into spreadsheets, not imaginary consensus numbers about low-cost hydrogen.

They really have to truly value stuff. After which after they do this, they discover out that hydrogen is dear, which we’ve recognized for a very long time. I simply assisted Professor Joe Romm, who’s working with Michael Mann at College of Pennsylvania with the twentieth version of his guide, The Hype About Hydrogen. Joe Romm did his work 25 years in the past and stated, why would we be contemplating this? It’s all the time going to be costly. Bruce McCabe, one other PhD out of Australia, did this work 25 years in the past and stated, that is actually costly. As I stated, I’m a gradual pupil. I’ve solely finished the maths on this prior to now decade, finished techno financial workups on hydrogen options for the previous ten years. And each time I do it, hydrogen comes out actually costly.

The worth level is attention-grabbing. Boston Consulting Group additionally revealed one thing saying, the consensus of €3 per kilogram inexperienced hydrogen in Europe by 2030 is popping out to not be appropriate. It can really be €5 to €8 per kilogram. And I agree it’ll be €6 to €8 to fabricate hydrogen. However that’s not delivering it, that’s simply making it. And so, as soon as once more, each time we now have to retailer it, each time we now have to move it, each time we now have to pump it, the associated fee goes up and up. Security stuff provides prices. So once we hear the associated fee level for hydrogen, you must ask, is it, what’s the associated fee delivered? And the very best value delivered for client functions, for hydrogen, is what’s being paid at fuel pumps world wide, which is $15 to $35 per kilogram. And that’s for grey hydrogen.

It’s not going to get cheaper than that common value level. For all of the offers that had been really struck final 12 months, to Reji’s level, the typical value level was €9.35 euro cents per kilogram. And that, as soon as once more, simply to fabricate it.

Okay, we now have one other query. Please clarify why hydrogen use serves fossil pursuits. It’s the title of the presentation, so I’m glad you requested. Michael Liebreich says it finest. The fossil gas trade can’t lose by selling hydrogen for power, both. Hydrogen for power turns into a serious a part of our power combine, and we will’t make sufficient inexperienced hydrogen in any respect, as a result of it could require vastly extra renewables than we now have at this time, which might require blue hydrogen, then the fossil gas reserves that the fossil gas trade has is the one supply of all that hydrogen.

And in an effort to do this in a considerably low carbon means, considerably probably not, they’d need to do carbon seize and the governments must pay them so as to add carbon seize to their hydrogen manufacture. In order that they win that means and their hydrocarbon reserves are good and governments and taxpayers give them a lot of cash. Or the opposite means they win is that they delay actual local weather motion with electrification by one other decade and so they maintain pumping their oil, coal and fuel for an additional decade with out actual motion. It’s an apparent technique for them. As you take a look at the funding for hydrogen advocacy organizations, what you discover is the fossil gas trade is throughout this area. They’re selling hydrogen far past its stage of capability. Do we now have different questions? I do know Puranima Gupta has had their hand up. I’m unsure in the event that they’ve put a query into chat.

What about mixing hydrogen in with pure fuel and current pipelines? This is without doubt one of the nice hopes of the trade. We’re going to place methane, we’re going to place pure fuel into current pure fuel pipelines after which we’re going to scale back the CO2 output of burning pure fuel. And it’s going to be nice. Properly, it’s not. The utmost you’ll be able to put into pipelines is about 20%, however hydrogen is so much much less dense than pure fuel, so you find yourself with much less power at extra value. You solely get a few 7% carbon emissions discount from the utmost combination of pure fuel with hydrogen. In order that’s downside one. Drawback two, pure fuel already leaks all through the distribution system. And the older the distribution system is, the extra it leaks.

Amusingly, I used to be speaking with, as soon as once more, the gentleman who chairs the International Carbon Venture. And he spent fairly a little bit of time in vehicles driving round Boston, Manhattan and Washington with methane sensors in search of leaks. What they discovered is the older elements of the town that had been essentially the most gentrified with essentially the most wealthy folks had the very best leaks. So it was fairly counterintuitive that it wasn’t an inequitable scenario because it usually was. It simply leaks so much. Now, why I deliver this up is methane leaks so much lower than hydrogen. So if you put hydrogen with pure fuel in a pipeline, any leaks that exist are going to disproportionately leak the hydrogen. And who pays for all of the leaking pure fuel at this time? Properly, customers do. It’s undelivered fuel. It’s a part of the expense that utility passes on.

So all that costly hydrogen that goes in with the pure fuel shall be rather more costly, it’ll leak much more and also you’ll pay much more. So it’s simply principally a lifeless finish. It’s fairly fascinating. So current metal pipelines, can we use the prevailing metal pipeline community for hydrogen transportation or do we want some modifications on the whole? Sure, you want modifications. You are able to do these modifications. The factor with hydrogen is as a result of it must be greater stress to ship much less quantity, as a result of as soon as once more, it’s so much much less dense as a fuel. It’s important to pressurize it so much. And pressurizing causes the pipes to flex. Because the pipes flex, we now have micro fractures within the weld joints of the pipes.

Hydrogen does what methane doesn’t, which is it will get into these weld joints and it bonds with the metals and it embrittles them. And so we now have to truly cut back our pressurization. We are able to solely get a few third of the power by the identical pipeline with security. Now we will get a bit extra by coating the insides. We have now to coat the insides of all of the pipelines with reasonably costly inside coatings. We have now to run pigs down them, spray them, take a look at them, and that’s simply to get to the purpose the place we will ship a 3rd of the power so we will do it. However as soon as once more, rather more costly than piping pure fuel, and it requires modifications. And the subsequent bit is all these compressors which might be used on the pure fuel pipelines aren’t match for function for a hydrogen pipeline.

They as soon as once more want greater stress compressors with higher suits. In any other case they’ll leak hydrogen like sieves. So all of the compressors on the pure fuel pipeline have to get replaced after which all of the electronics. Methane doesn’t assault electronics. Hydrogen is absolutely reactive. It assaults electronics. You really need to get a unique licensed set of sensors and electronics in your hydrogen pipeline than exist on the methane pipeline. So it’s not a slam dunk. You’ll be able to’t simply say, I’ve acquired a pipe, I’ve acquired pumps. I’ll simply put hydrogen as a substitute of pure fuel. You will have change all of your compressors. It’s important to improve all of your electronics. It’s important to coat the within of the pipeline. And guess what? That each one provides value to ship much less power. It’s not a slam dunk. Every other questions?

RK: Madam Puranima Gupta was asking, she continues to be not clear how hydrogen will not be good to decarbonize? It’s good to decarbonize, offered you can also make it cheaper to different applied sciences and likewise the difficulties about storing it and transporting it and total power. Inefficient resolution is what Michael defined within the earlier slide. So the webinar recording shall be accessible in simply two days to all of the individuals who registered. Thanks very a lot, Michael. Good day to you.

MB: Properly, I’ll add one level to that remark. It’s completely essential to decarbonize all of the hydrogen that we at the moment use and can proceed to make use of for the subsequent a long time as industrial feedstocks. Proper now, that’s a local weather downside we now have to resolve. Inexperienced hydrogen is the reply to it, and that signifies that we now have to do this. However that’s the local weather, that’s the decarbonization resolution we now have to work on for hydrogen, which is lowering it from an issue the dimensions of all aviation globally right down to one thing that’s not the dimensions of all aviation globally. So decarbonization and hydrogen don’t consider it as an answer set. Consider it as an issue space that we now have to resolve. So that will be the factor. Again to you, Reji.

RK: Thanks. Good day. Good night. Good evening to all of the members from India Asia area. Good evening.