Ford is on observe to promote between 40,000 and 50,000 electrical autos within the US this yr. That’s not good. But, first-quarter gross sales suggest Ford would be the third finest promoting automaker within the EV business in 2023.
Tesla, in the meantime, is on observe to promote about 640,000 electrical autos within the US in 2023. So, whereas Ford might find yourself third, it’s far, far away from #1 Tesla.
There are a number of causes for the distinction in scale, together with battery provides and total manufacturing functionality, however on the buyer aspect, one issue that has lengthy favored Tesla to an amazing extent is its Supercharger community. It’s by far the perfect community for simple, dependable, superfast charging.
A number of years in the past, once we requested hundreds of EV patrons “Which of the next are an important concerns so that you can take into account shopping for a selected EV mannequin?” (permitting a couple of choice), 23% of Tesla drivers, 35% of non-Tesla BEV drivers and 42% of PHEV drivers chosen “Entry to Tesla’s Supercharger community (or a comparable superfast-charging community).” For an fascinating comparability, these figures had been 90%, 3%, and 0%, respectively, within the UK.
Some folks might take into account different EV quick charging networks as similar to Tesla’s Supercharger community, however they actually aren’t on the identical degree nonetheless, which is why Ford CEO Jim Farley determined that Ford would companion with Tesla to present its drivers entry to Tesla Supercharging.
Earlier than persevering with on this matter, I’ll simply say once more that so as to promote much more electrical autos a yr, Ford has to line up the battery provides and ramp up the manufacturing capability. So long as it doesn’t try this, it gained’t get lots of the advantages Tesla has earned and it gained’t after all promote 1,000,000 EVs a yr. Nonetheless, if it put in that effort, with this new partnership, I believe Ford may simply promote half 1,000,000 EVs a yr within the States.
Initially, I put “1 million” within the title, and I believe that’s certainly potential. Nonetheless, to be a bit extra conservative and life like in regards to the close to time period, I dropped that to a couple of quarter of Ford’s gross sales, or half 1,000,000. The corporate has a beautiful, succesful, competitively priced electrical crossover or SUV on provide (the Ford Mustang Mach-E) and an electrical pickup truck (the Ford F-150 Lightning). With good choices in these extraordinarily common segments, Ford may actually climb near the mixed success of the Tesla Mannequin 3 and Mannequin Y. Add yet one more BEV in one other common automobile class and Ford may goal for 50,000 gross sales 1 / 4 for every of the fashions and will thus attain 600,000 a yr.
Ford has had a difficulty with giant markups on its electrical autos at sellers as demand has far outstripped provide. With Supercharger entry coming, anticipate that drawback to resurface. I do know folks in my very own life who would severely take into account a Ford EV with this significantly better charging entry, my family included.
Naturally, this isn’t a scientific endeavor, and all forecasting relies to some extent on assumptions which might be merely guesses. Nonetheless, I used to be fairly proper on my expectations for Tesla Mannequin 3 and Mannequin Y gross sales progress, and I believe Ford may promote a number of hundred thousand F-150 Lightnings and a pair hundred thousand Mustang Mach-Es to clients now that they may achieve Tesla Supercharger entry — if Ford has sufficient ambition and produces sufficient. What do you suppose? Is 500,000 electrical Fords too bullish? Nonetheless bearish?
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