EVs Take 27.6% Share In France — Citroën e-C3 Arrives In A Rush

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September’s auto gross sales noticed plugin EVs take 27.6% share in France, a drop from 29.3% 12 months on 12 months. BEV share grew modestly YoY, whereas PHEV share fell. Total auto quantity was 139,003 models, down by some 11% YoY. The Tesla Mannequin Y was the most effective promoting BEV in September.

September’s market information noticed mixed plugin EVs take 27.6% share in France, with 20.4% full battery-electrics (BEVs) and seven.2% plugin hybrids (PHEVs). These examine with YoY figures of 29.3% mixed, 19.3% BEV and 10.0% PHEV.

BEV quantity really lowered by some 6% YoY — although, in a broader market which noticed an 11% drop, BEV share however elevated marginally. PHEVs fared much less properly, with quantity down some 26% YoY and share all the way down to 7.2% from 10.0%. PHEV share has been remarkably regular at 7-something % for the previous 6 months.

12 months so far, BEVs have solely taken an extra ~1.2% of market share in contrast up to now final 12 months (17.1% vs 15.9%), which is clearly a weak progress trajectory. The excellent news is that each Citroen and Renault have lastly began buyer deliveries of their new somewhat-affordable BEVs in September, having solely delivered small numbers of dealer-demonstration models beforehand.

The Renault 5 noticed a good 1,101 models in September, and the Citroen e-C3 made a powerful 3,626 registrations. If the approaching few months might maybe keep (or improve) these sorts of volumes, it should improve 2024’s general BEV trajectory again into comparatively optimistic territory, however it’s not but a positive factor, as we are going to see beneath.

As we are able to see from the powertrain evolution chart beneath, petrol-only gross sales proceed to get replaced by HEV gross sales, in nearly direct proportion. Nonetheless, nearly half of those “HEVs” tallied up by the French auto trade physique (the PFA) are in reality merely mild-hybrids that sometimes use a really modest electrical motor complement to an ICE engine and do mild regen, fairly than having the ability to drive in electrical mode per se, even for a brief distance (as full HEVs not less than can do, to some extent).

These sorts of mild-hybrid HEVs do enhance an ICE engine’s gas economic system modestly (by round 15% sometimes), however are solely a quick-fix momentary stopgap on the way in which to largely plugin powertrains, and finally, nearly totally BEVs.

Diesel-only gross sales additionally continued to shrink, all the way down to a brand new document low of 5.8% share (from 8.5% YoY), and eight,083 models.

Finest Promoting BEV Fashions

The Tesla Mannequin Y was again to the highest of France’s BEV charts in September, with a powerful 4,591 registrations. That is its finest consequence since December 2023, and solely barely beneath the YoY quantity from September 2023. Provided that there at the moment are a a lot wider array of BEV fashions accessible in comparison with a 12 months in the past, that is a powerful consequence.

In second place was the brand new Citroen e-C3, with 3,626 models, and in third was the Peugeot e-208, with 1,420 models.

The Renault Scenic, in 4th, put in a document efficiency, 1,264 registrations, up from its earlier better of 991 registrations in July. As we are going to see beneath, this implies the Scenic has simply overtaken its older sibling, the Megane, within the trailing 3-month rankings, as we just lately predicted.

The Mini Cooper has additionally continued to develop, now touchdown in sixth spot with a brand new document of 1,091 registrations. Is that this, in reality, the Cooper mannequin? The AAA information supply simply names the “Mini – Mini” because the bearer of this tally, so this might in reality be any of, or maybe some mixture of, the brand new era of Mini BEVs. Tell us within the feedback when you’ve got insights.

There wasn’t an excessive amount of dramatic information within the high 20 ranks, apart from the long-awaited quantity arrival of the 2 new “reasonably priced” BEVs from Citroen and Renault that I discussed earlier. We solely have entry to restricted mannequin quantity information, and evidently below-the-radar numbers (low 3-digit volumes) of each of those new BEVs in reality began to be registered over the previous two months, presumably for preliminary dealer-demonstration models.

There’s a combined blessing within the spectacular trying Citroen e-C3 numbers for September. From native reporting, evidently this surprisingly giant quantity of three,626 models was the results of a rush job by Citroen to attempt to meet the end-of-September deadline for delivering vehicles contracted beneath the the Social Leasing Programme, signed in early 2024.

Within the occasion that Citroen didn’t meet the supply deadline for the federal government programme (and allow shoppers to say the inducement), it must honour the low cost pricing itself … and in the long run, that unlucky final result occurred. Though 3,626 models did meet the deadline, an additional 2,000 to 2,500 contracted models didn’t, so Citroen needed to honour the low cost out of its personal pocket. This apparently amounted to round €13,000 per car, costing Citroen a tidy ~€30 million.

I’m unsure if an analogous scenario utilized to the timing of the respectable variety of Renault 5 deliveries in September additionally, tell us when you’ve got data about that. Both means, although unlucky, these missteps will probably fade from view in the long term, if the Citroen e-C3 lives as much as its potential of being the model’s finest promoting BEV, with many tens of hundreds — maybe even low a whole bunch of hundreds — of models bought yearly.

Let’s now have a look at the 3-month charts:

Regardless of its erratic month-to-month numbers, the longer-term view exhibits that the Tesla Mannequin Y remains to be in a robust lead general within the French BEV market.

The Citroen e-C3’s September rush-job instantly boosted it to second place, however this can be a brief rank (not less than within the short-term), as soon as it begins delivering the initially modest month-to-month output to different European international locations. In the long term, as soon as totally ramped and with a number of value variants, the e-C3 might (ought to?) actually be an everyday member of France’s high 3.

The previous native favorite, the Peugeot e-208, stays fashionable for now, and took third place.

As alluded to earlier, the Renault Scenic has now lastly overtaken its older sibling, the Megane, by a slim margin (20 models), ending up in fourth place in September. We will count on this new household pecking-order to stay in place for the foreseeable future — not less than till the Renault 5 begins to succeed in actually important manufacturing volumes over the following 12 months or so.

Speaking of the Renault 5, on high of September’s 1,101 models, there have been a handful of models (of unknown amount) delivered over the previous couple of months, so I’ve given it an honorary 1,250 models within the 3-month chart, which places it someplace between the Volkswagen ID.3 and ID.4 siblings. Relying on its ramp up and nation allocation selections, the brand new Renault 5 will probably keep within the high 15 spots within the subsequent couple of months, and step by step rise, maybe into the highest 5 spots, over the following 12 months or so. Let’s control it.

Outlook

Considerably clumsily in Citroen’s case, the brand new more-affordable small BEVs have lastly arrived in  substantial volumes in France, and will now assist elevate the EV trajectory for the rest of the 12 months. As talked about a number of occasions just lately, Europe’s BEV transition will solely correctly resume its upward journey in 2025, when tighter emissions rules come into impact throughout the EU regulatory zone.

France’s broader economic system stays tepid, however much less weak than a lot of its neighbours. Q2 2024 GDP output was simply 1% up YoY, newest inflation figures are at an improved 1.2%, and rates of interest (from the ECB) lowered to three.65%. Manufacturing PMI stays weak nevertheless, at 44.6 factors in September, from 43.9 factors in August.

With the brand new Citroen e-C3 and Renault 5 now lastly reaching shoppers, what are your ideas on the 2024 EV transition trajectory for France? As a reminder, 2021 full 12 months noticed a 9.8% BEV share, 2022 noticed 13.3%, and 2023 noticed 16.8%. As of now, 2024 12 months so far stands at 17.1%. With these new fashions, will BEV share attain near 19% for full 12 months 2024? Tell us within the feedback beneath.