EVs Take 20.8% Share In France — Citroën E-C3 Delayed!

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July’s auto gross sales noticed plugin EVs take 20.8% share in France, a drop from 23.3% year-on-year. BEV share was roughly flat YoY, whereas PHEV share fell. Total auto quantity was 126,037 models, down by some 2% YoY. The Renault Megane took the lead within the BEV rankings.

July’s market tally noticed mixed plugin EVs take 20.8% share in France, comprising 13.5% full battery-electrics (BEVs), and seven.3% plugin hybrids (PHEVs). These evaluate with YoY figures of 23.3% mixed, with 13.1% BEV, and 10.3% PHEV.

In quantity phrases, BEVs had been basically flat YoY, rising gross sales by lower than one p.c. This was sufficient to marginally enhance BEV market share, given the general market’s 2% quantity shrinkage. PHEV volumes fell 31% YoY to 9,174 models (the bottom quantity in virtually 2 years), and thus noticed a loss in market share.

Some BEV puritans could also be tempted to rejoice the decline in PHEV gross sales, however this isn’t Norway, a rustic close to the top level of the transition, the place the choice for an averted PHEV sale is nearly at all times a BEV sale.

In France, the de facto various to a PHEV sale is usually both a combustion automobile or extra possible a plugless hybrid (or delicate hybrid). Hybrids grew quantity by virtually 50% YoY to 48,445 models, overtaking mixed combustion-only gross sales for the primary time.

Why are France’s BEV gross sales now lacklustre by way of YoY progress?  European BEVs stay far overpriced in comparison with the place they need to be, given the unconventional value declines in BEV powertrains. Recall that BEVs in China at the moment are competing on worth with ICE automobiles in virtually all market segments.

The EU guidelines have successfully frozen the requirement for auto emissions enhancements in 2024 in comparison with 2023 — and lots of legacy auto makers are solely transferring to BEV as a result of they need to, not as a result of they wish to decrease emissions. Don’t count on them to do greater than legally obligated.

The EU guidelines will solely see the following step of tightening in 2025, so we are able to’t count on EV progress in Europe till then. The most important European legacy gamers really decreased their BEV gross sales in Q1 2024, over Q1 2023 (see Sweden report). Conserving out inexpensive EVs made in China, to guard European legacy auto’s document income (within the quick time period), can also be a part of this image — sturdy competitors is seemingly dangerous for shareholder income and govt salaries.

Well being, local weather, and shopper pocket books, are all paying the value for legacy auto’s document income.

The quick time period enhance to YoY BEV gross sales in France in the beginning of the yr — which got here from the momentary “social leasing” programme — is now firmly up to now. We are able to count on, at greatest, a flat BEV YoY market till 2025, until the Citroen e-C3 has a record-breaking manufacturing ramp up, and funnels virtually all its output into the French market.

The e-C3 was initially scheduled to launch in Q2, however none have delivered but (as of early August 2024), with the explanation given for the delay — “software program points”. However after all. Now the primary supply timing is guided vaguely as “after the summer time break” — does that successfully imply October and onwards? My recommendation — don’t maintain your breath for this promised wave of inexpensive BEVs from European legacy auto. Most of them stay unashamed foot-draggers on the EVs transition. First rate quantity in all probability received’t seem till effectively into 2025.

Finest Promoting BEV Fashions

The Renault Megane was one of the best promoting BEV — for the second consecutive month — in July, with 1,419 models delivered.

In runner-up spot was the Tesla Mannequin Y, with 1,205 models. The Peugeot e-208 took third, with 1,166 models.

The brand new Renault Scenic (in 4th) has damaged into the highest 5 for the primary time since its January debut. Let’s see if it will probably change into an everyday, and even climb increased.

The one shock within the high 20 was the BMW iX2, getting into for the primary time (seventeenth place) after its French debut in February. The stunning side is that the iX2 is actually a barely lowered and coupe-backed variant of the iX1, which is already a high 10 common in France.

Each these BMW SUVs are fairly inexpensive, given the premium positioning. Each will be had for costs ranging from €46,900. The iX1 is extra boxy and sensible for households, the iX2 is extra sporty trying.

One level to notice is that — whereas the iX1 MSRP is about 7.5% costlier than its combustion “X1” variants — the BEV iX2 undercuts its combustion variants (the “X2”), even when solely by ~€1,000.

This possible makes many potential BMW SUV consumers take a look at the iX2 BEV as comparatively “nice worth”, and helps its gross sales. The primary instance of a BEV priced under its ICE siblings that I’m conscious of in Europe (bounce within the feedback if of others) — although not too stunning to see it in a premium section. In any case, it’s a lot simpler and less expensive to supply “energy and refinement” through an EV powertrain, than through an ICE powertrain.

We don’t have sufficient knowledge decision to determine France’s July debutants, however see our different studies to test regional debutants rising in neighbouring markets.

Let’s test in on the trailing 3-month rankings:

There are few large surprises right here, besides to notice that the Renault Megane has climbed steadily over the previous few months to now take the highest spot. The Peugeot e-208 nonetheless has an enormous lead within the full yr race, nonetheless.

Notice additionally the rise of the Megane’s youthful sibling, the Renault Scenic, now inside the highest 10 for the primary time, and more likely to climb increased.

When the Citroen e-C3 lastly does arrive in good quantity (once more, possible not earlier than 2025), it would shake up this chart a bit. Renault and Volkswagen should reply by providing higher worth on their very own small BEVs, which is able to improve their respective gross sales volumes. This relative improve will possible push among the extra premium and costly BEVs (BMW iX1, maybe the Tesla Mannequin 3) a number of steps down the rankings, even when their unit gross sales stay largely unchanged.

Outlook

France’s BEVs noticed wholesome YoY development for the primary 4 months of 2024, however have since stagnated for the explanations we mentioned above. The general auto market has additionally been barely down YoY for the previous 3 months. The broader economic system continues to be above water YoY, however solely weakly so, with Q2 2024 GDP up 1.1% YoY, from 1.5% in Q1. That is nonetheless higher than the Netherlands, Germany, Denmark, and Sweden, that are all in unfavourable territory as of newest knowledge.

France’s inflation charge remained comparatively regular at 2.3% in June (newest), and rates of interest are flat at 4.25%. Manufacturing PMI took a downturn in July to 44 factors, from 45.4 in June.

The outlook for the BEV transition in France is more likely to proceed to be uninspiring for the remainder of this yr. The momentary social leasing programme is now principally performed out, 2024 EU rules don’t require emissions progress over 2023, and the “inexpensive” home-grown European BEVs received’t arrive in quantity till 2025. In actual fact, they are going to arrive simply in time for the tighter emissions rules — not a coincidence.

What are your ideas on France’s EV transition? Please bounce into the dialogue under to share your perspective.