Costa Rica EV Gross sales Report: Latin America’s Champion Surpasses All Expectations in July as ¼ of Market Turns into Absolutely Electrical in July

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Seven months in the past, I wrote this: If January is to be an indicator, 2024 will even convey nice progress to Costa Rica’s EV market, however it’s onerous to foretell the place it’ll finish. One can hope for 25% market share, however I really feel someplace round 17% is extra believable. Time will inform! (That’s from the 2023 LatAm EV gross sales report.)

I’m right here to replace on that prediction. As months have handed, progress has accelerated not solely yr on yr, but additionally month on month: this implies yearly market share for the primary six months of the yr already crossed 15% and retains rising.

Now, if we have been restricted to June’s knowledge, this may be it, and my prediction wouldn’t be too far off. However the nation appears to have “pulled a Uruguay” in July, with 197% progress YoY from an already very excessive base degree, surpassing my hyper-optimistic 25% market share prediction for the month!

Basic Overview

You’ll have observed that I didn’t specify the precise market share. Full disclosure: I don’t comprehend it.

Costa Rica is surprisingly obscure: the nation offers combination knowledge on EV registrations from the Ministry of Vitality and Mining, however little else. I haven’t discovered a strategy to find complete registrations, a lot much less gross sales per mannequin or model, and I’ve to depend on native blogs* and media to make out what the precise scenario is. Based mostly upon that, that is what we all know:

First, EV registrations have been rising, reaching a brand new document of 1,343 BEVs in July. PHEV knowledge shouldn’t be obtainable, however we all know all hybrids quantity for less than 4% of the market.

Second, complete automobile gross sales are anticipated to rise this yr, getting near or maybe surpassing the all-time document from 2016: 59,600. The market doesn’t look very seasonal, which might imply July’s registrations shouldn’t be removed from the month-to-month common of 5,000.

Based mostly upon these two cheap assumptions, complete market share for July reached 27%, greater than my higher expectations, bringing the yearly quantity to 16–17%. One other means of seeing it’s that Costa Rica’s EV gross sales within the first seven months of 2024 are already 10% greater than throughout the complete 2023. In the event you guys keep in mind our report from 2023, that yr Costa Rica had 11.7% BEV market share.

Gross sales per Model

Costa Rica isn’t solely probably the most profitable EV market within the Americas, it’s additionally some of the various ones. Not like different markets with very excessive progress, like Uruguay and Colombia, Costa Rica doesn’t current near-complete domination by one automaker (which within the earlier circumstances is BYD).

As a substitute, the nation has the wholesome presence of plenty of manufacturers — most of them Chinese language — and what appears to be probably the most aggressive ecosystem in the complete continent. Whereas BYD owns 70% of Uruguay’s market, and achieved 50% market share in Colombia throughout July, in Costa Rica this model solely accounts for 1 / 4 of EV gross sales.

Costa Rica can be the one Latin American market the place Geely has a major presence outdoors of its finest recognized model (Volvo), because of the success of its inexpensive Geometry fashions.

Closing Ideas

In my most up-to-date report about Colombia, I discussed that the presence of 6 sub-$25,000 BEV fashions available in the market was boosting gross sales. Effectively, so far as I might discover, there are 11 such fashions in Costa Rica! A few of them should not obtainable outdoors this nation, just like the Geometry E, which initially sparked the value conflict that allowed Costa Rica to turn into the indeniable chief within the area (and which is now $2,000 cheaper than it was when it arrived!).

An fascinating reality is that Made-in-Mexico EVs find yourself being cheaper in Costa Rica than of their residence market: such is the case with the JAC E30X ($22,000 in Costa Rica, $24,500 in Mexico) and the JAC eSei4 ($28,000 in Costa Rica, $37,500 in Mexico). For this reason one model isn’t sufficient and a aggressive ecosystem should be constructed for decrease costs to reach in these markets!

Like Uruguay, Costa Rica has comparatively costly gasoline (at round $5 a gallon), lacks oil reserves, and produces plentiful, inexpensive renewable power. Which means that changing overseas oil for native electrical energy makes plenty of sense for the nation.

The charging community in Costa Rica appears to be respectable, with a widespread quantity of 50kW DC stations with GB/T and CCS1/CCS2 chargers. Nonetheless, many of the areas have just one stand, which suggests the chance of failure is excessive and customers might get stranded. I’m but to search out feedback concerning strains and lengthy ready occasions, however until extra stands are readily deployed, that is solely a matter of time. Gross sales are rising quick, and the infrastructure should sustain.

In any case, Costa Rica’s path to electrification is accelerating, and if it’s an indicator of what’s to return in the remainder of the area … properly, Legacy Auto should brace for affect, as a result of ICEVs received’t retain their numbers for for much longer.

Finally, a few of you will have observed we modified our Model Market Share for EV Gross sales chart. This was due to a suggestion from a reader, and I would love your opinion of it. Is that this one higher, or did you like the outdated one, with rectangular bars?

*Primarily the weblog from Alejandro Montero (Ale Montero Tech), an area EV champion who I really feel deserves credit score for all of the work he does in that nation.