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BloombergNEF (BNEF) has a brand new report out this month, the Zero-Emission Automobiles Factbook. It was particularly ready for the COP28 summit that’s at present underway within the UAE. There’s lots within the 71-page report and I’m positive we’ll cowl extra highlights, however as I began digging in, I acquired to some charts that made me chuckle.
BNEF included charts of zero-emission automobile gross sales from 2015 via 2023, however do not forget that consists of each full battery electrical automobiles (BEVs) and gas cell automobiles (FCVs). When you’ve been watching these markets develop and develop over the previous decade, you recognize that considered one of these know-how selections has completed very effectively and one has not. A decade in the past, there was usually scorching, fierce debate about which know-how path would do higher. The folks arguing the gas cell automobile case misplaced, and listed below are the charts to show it:
Did you catch it? The FCV gross sales are represented by purple. When you can’t see the purple, that’s as a result of it’s barely seen. Hydrogen gas cell automobiles misplaced. They’re a tiny, tiny, tiny, tiny portion of zero-emission automobile gross sales. We predicted this a decade or so in the past, but there have been many hydrogen followers adamantly (and incorrectly) disagreeing with us.
This isn’t a brand new transfer by BNEF. The corporate has beforehand produced these charts exhibiting BEV and FCV gross sales in the identical charts. It was humorous a number of years in the past, however it’s hilarious that BNEF has continued to incorporate FCV gross sales yr after yr.
Right here’s a have a look at solely FCV gross sales:
What shocked Jo Borras and me was that there have been really 15,000 FCVS bought final yr, and practically 18,000 the yr earlier than. Who’s shopping for these? Effectively, it seems South Korea is shopping for lots — practically 95%. However the FCV period appears lengthy over, not that it ever acquired began.
I pulled out a number of different charts as effectively — some good, some not so good. One particularly enjoyable chart is that this one exhibiting that combustion automobile gross sales peaked in 2017. Our personal Max Holland wrote about this a number of years in the past, and now the information have come into play proving him proper. The fossil gas automobile trade hasn’t recovered even near 2019 ranges, and it doubtless by no means will.
The issue is: the world’s general automobile fleet continues to develop, and ZEVs haven’t clearly made a dent in automobile emissions.
EVs are rising quick. But a lot work nonetheless must be completed.
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