Tesla introduced in a press launch that it might be internet hosting its 2023 Investor Day on March 1, 2023. The occasion will likely be stay streamed from the corporate’s Gigafactory Texas, and a few institutional and retail traders will likely be invited to attend in individual. All traders, the corporate says, will be capable to see Tesla’s “most superior manufacturing line in addition to focus on long run enlargement plans, technology 3 platform, capital allocation, and different topics with our management crew.”
Let unpack what we find out about these main matters forward of the March 1 Investor Day and make some educated guesses about Tesla’s upcoming advances.
Lengthy-Time period Growth Plans
Demand for Tesla all-electric automobiles continues to extend. Even with the corporate’s latest worth cuts and commensurate revenue declines, Tesla can nonetheless improve income and preserve its gross revenue superiority over different manufacturers. That’s as a result of the corporate has the capability to fabricate greater than one million automobiles yearly, along with vitality merchandise, battery cells, and different sustainable vitality merchandise.
Economies of scale and elevated battery provide are serving to Tesla to search out equilibrium between pricing and revenue. The result’s the corporate is ramping up manufacturing all over the world. It’s seemingly that new manufacturing amenities will open in North America and in Asia in 2023 and 2034.
Asia is an interesting manufacturing location for Tesla, with the corporate positioned properly to seize fast gross sales progress on the world’s largest and quickest rising continent. Tesla appeared to be getting near signing a deal to construct a plant in Indonesia earlier this month, in keeping with sources acquainted with the matter in a report from Bloomberg. The information got here after Tesla negotiated with the nation for months, particularly discussing the Southeast Asian nation’s wealthy provide of nickel — an important mineral for constructing electrical automobile batteries.
China will grow to be notably necessary as each a manufacturing hub and gross sales income generator. Even with the backdrop of Covid shutdowns, Shanghai is Tesla’s largest and best manufacturing facility, with interesting provide chain networks feeding into it. The corporate’s Q2 2022 replace exhibits the significance of the Shanghai Gigafactory and its position as the corporate’s important export hub. Furthermore, Musk’s confidence in Shanghai is symbolized by the appointment of Zhu Xiaotong, additionally referred to as Tom Zhu, to supervise Tesla’s US meeting vegetation and gross sales operations in North America and Europe. Zhu was beforehand Tesla’s vp for Larger China.
Tesla’s footprint in California is made up of Megapack manufacturing and automobile castings in Lathrop, {hardware} and software program engineering in Palo Alto, automobile and battery manufacturing in Fremont, battery growth and testing in San Diego, and automobile design in Hawthorne. In 2012, the primary Mannequin S rolled off the meeting line at Tesla’s manufacturing facility in Fremont, California. The Fremont manufacturing facility has restricted room to broaden, although, with the utmost potential to supply as much as 550,000 Mannequin 3/Mannequin Y a yr plus as much as 100,000 refreshed Mannequin S/Mannequin X a yr.
With Tesla’s Gigafactory Berlin now producing EVs, the automaker is trying to considerably improve output and gross sales. Whereas it’s at the moment producing and promoting far fewer models than legacy automakers within the nation, Tesla is focused to develop to 500,000 in Berlin by 2024.
On January 24, Tesla introduced it is going to be investing over $3.6 billion extra to proceed rising Gigafactory Nevada, including 3,000 new crew members and two new factories: a 100 GWh 4680 cell manufacturing facility (with capability to supply sufficient batteries for 1.5 million gentle obligation automobiles yearly) in addition to its first high-volume Semi manufacturing facility. The Semi is the corporate’s totally electrical mixture truck, with 500 miles of vary and vitality consumption of lower than 2 kWh per mile.
As we speak, we’re asserting $3.6B of latest funding in Giga Nevada.
– 4M sq ft of latest manufacturing footprint
– 3k further crew members
– 2 new manufacturing amenities: a 100 GWh 4680 cell manufacturing facility & our first high-volume Semi manufacturing facilityParticulars → https://t.co/4CBOIFLwAW pic.twitter.com/rqXzyE7eRK
— Tesla (@Tesla) January 24, 2023
Era 3 Platform
Musk has claimed its next-generation automobile platform — the Era 3 Platform — will likely be “the first focus of the automobile growth crew” any more.
Through the Q2 2022 investor name, Musk stated, “It’s apparent you possibly can guess what we’re engaged on, which is that this next-generation automobile, which will likely be about half the price of the three/Y platform. It’ll be smaller, to be honest, however it can I feel swiftly grow to be — swiftly exceed the product of all of our different automobiles mixed.” Thus, this will likely be a brand new platform, totally different from the one on which Mannequin 3 and Mannequin Y are constructed. Musk additionally appears to verify that this lower-cost Tesla may also be for robotaxi service.
When Tesla moved from the Mannequin S/X platform to the Mannequin 3/Y platform, the price of manufacturing fell sharply. The manufacturing transition opened up quite a few prospects for the corporate, making it accessible to a lot of shoppers (like me), and due to this fact introducing all-electric transportation to a complete new phase of society.
Anticipated Capital Allocation for Tesla in 2023
Varied communications from the Tesla group counsel that the corporate is engaged on:
- Fulfilling the 1.3 million Cybertruck reservations on file, harnessing the complete potential of manufacturing enhancements such because the Giga Press. Tesla has pioneered using these huge casting machines to make giant single items of car underbodies, streamline manufacturing, and cut back the work of even robots. A number of 9,000-ton Giga Casting machines could also be wanted to attain this Cybertruck goal.
- A refreshed model of the Tesla Mannequin 3 — This would be the first time within the Mannequin 3’s nearly-6-year historical past that its design has been refreshed, and stories say Tesla is aiming to start manufacturing of the automobile in 2023. One focus of the redesign codenamed “Highland” is to scale back the variety of elements and complexity within the inside of the Mannequin 3 w.hile specializing in options that Tesla consumers worth, together with the show.
- A robotaxi designed to be a shared automobile — Within the Q2 2022 name, Musk let slip that Tesla can have totally autonomous robotaxis with no steering wheels or brake pedals in service by 2024.
- A $25,000 Tesla — In 2021, Tom Zhu, then president of Tesla’s operation in China, spoke in an interview with Xinhua Internet, the Chinese language state media outlet, that Tesla China is creating a $25,000 automobile. A number of pundits jumped on the $25,000 Tesla bandwagon afterward, however, because it has but did not materialize, media retailers like Forbes are strolling again their predictions. (As a substitute, they’re leaning towards reasonably priced electrical automobile fashions from Asia which might be coming — quickly.)
- The brand new 4680 battery, which is lastly beginning to seem in quantity. The 4680 cells are 5.5 occasions the dimensions of the 2170 cells by quantity. Tesla wants about 4,400 of the 2170 cells to energy the Mannequin Y and there are 17,600 factors that must be welded — 4 per cell — to create a pack that may be built-in into the automobile. Musk’s promised enhancements in battery value and efficiency are seen by traders as important to Tesla’s quest to usher in an period the place it may promote a $25,000 EV for a revenue.
- Autonomous driving at some degree in all automobiles — This has been an integral a part of Musk’s dreamscape for years. Final yr about this time, Musk stated that Full Self Driving is de facto advanced. “They don’t know how onerous FSD is. Solely path to success imo is hardcore real-world AI software program with devoted NN inference acceleration ASICs in automobile, multibillion greenback NN coaching supercluster and 10+ billion miles of car knowledge. Good luck.”
- The vitality storage line is kicking into gear and can grow to be a big income earner for the corporate. Tesla is more and more specializing in renewable vitality as a complete, moderately than simply electrical automobiles, providing a broad vary of photo voltaic and vitality storage merchandise for clear vitality functions.
