There are considerably blended views on the newsworthiness of the Tesla Investor Day on March 1st, 2023. I sat by way of the entire occasion reside and took notes of what I believed was information. Possibly you probably did too? Possibly you didn’t? Possibly you’ve gotten already learn and considered a myriad of reactions to the occasion? In any case, let me current in as quick a format as potential what I feel was vital. I can’t go into the overarching Grasp Plan Half 3 theme of the occasion, however fairly concentrate on the concrete issues that may assist Tesla do its half in realizing the plan.
Pre-Occasion Information
First, although, a brief record of the issues I bought to learn about shortly earlier than the occasion itself:
- Giga Nevada increasing. Outdated information, I do know.
- Giga Mexico introduced. Extra particulars leaked lately, like Tom Zhu wanting to construct this factor quicker than Giga Shanghai!
- Lithium refinery in Corpus Christi, Texas. Essential bottleneck addressed.
- Giga Berlin 4,000 car per week milestone. Sooner than deliberate.
- Magic-dock in operation at Superchargers within the US. Opening as much as others is essential for the benefit of use of all EV house owners.
Cool if all this information may have been saved below the lid till the occasion, however there you go. I did my half speculating earlier than the occasion, and I too had thought Tesla would roll out one thing on 4 wheels. Possibly not a full automobile, however no less than a skateboard chassis. We didn’t see something. I feel the reason being that Tesla is being very cautious to not get caught within the Osborne impact. However, for my part, we did the truth is be taught rather a lot in regards to the next-gen platform.
At-Occasion Information
The next was information to me, and although a few of it may need been recognized beforehand, I put it in there simply in case (random order):
- White paper on international renewable vitality transition. It isn’t out but, however I feel it’s the first time an business entity is calculating and laying out how a whole transition to a worldwide renewable vitality system may very well be executed.
- SiC. As much as 75% discount of silicon carbide by redesign of built-in circuits and energy electronics. Ultimately, the design of all controllers might be carried out in-house.
- Uncommon earth supplies. None for use in next-gen motor. At the moment, 520 grams utilized in Mannequin Y. I heard about nanomagnets 10 years in the past — may Tesla have cracked this expertise?
- $1000 motor. I truthfully don’t perceive how that is potential. Solely at immense scale, I assume.
- Inverter software program simulation instruments. Having the ability to simulate magnetic flux in hundreds of digital designs is essential for optimum efficiency and effectivity.
- Multi-battery chemistry. Subsequent-gen platform will seamlessly take any battery chemistry.
- Warmth pump automation. Others wrestle with off-the-shelf warmth pump parts, that are essential to general car effectivity. Tesla has automated 99% of the meeting steps. The following technology might be even easier.
- Unboxed car meeting course of. Giga casting and structural battery makes parallel automobile module meeting potential, thus eliminating house and time constraint from conventional serial meeting traces.
- Full 48V car structure. No suppliers are prepared for this. Tesla has to design all components from scratch. 75% much less copper use. Vital weight saving. Much less warmth waste, which means much more general car effectivity.
- In-house controllers. The Mannequin Y at present makes use of 39% off-the-shelf controllers. Cybertruck will use solely 15%. The following-gen car platform will use solely controllers designed in-house, enabling 100% built-in {hardware}/software program structure.
- Excessive vertical integration. As Tesla will get nearer to an elusive 100% vertical integration, quicker product refinement iteration is enabled. No want for “variations,” simply steady optimization all the way in which from the primary steps of manufacturing to the product’s finish of life.
- V2G. Arduous to know actually how vital bidirectional vehicle-to-grid options are, contemplating the utilization of ever cheaper house batteries. Nevertheless, the next-gen platform might be V2G succesful (most likely additionally the Cybertruck for apparent causes).
- “No spoon” 4680. 4680 cell manufacturing is now at scale. Uncooked materials provide may very well be the limiting issue prior to we anticipated. Surplus manufacturing will go to Megapacks (2-year wait time proper now), which ensures provide and no extra stock for car manufacturing.
- Supercharger “air site visitors management.” As AI enters route planning, Supercharger station use could be optimized.
- Limitless in a single day house charging $30/month in Texas. A clue of the super-abundant vitality provide of the totally built-in renewable vitality future.
- Subsequent-gen multi-model platform. I suspected that to ensure that the brand new platform to be so low cost, it must be versatile sufficient to assist any design connected to it, totally autonomous or not.
- 4 million Tesla automobiles constructed thus far. Nice milestone to succeed in at this vital occasion.
- Scaling requires $150–$175 billion funding. With a view to scale to twenty million automobiles and 1 TWh annual battery manufacturing capability by 2030, greater than 10× Tesla’s 2022 web revenue is required.
- Opex % retains plunging. This isn’t a given, however is essential for future money circulate.
- Tesla Working System. All inner software program within the Tesla organisation is now developed by Tesla. No wasted code. No licence charges. No dependencies. Most flexibility.
That is simply what I managed to soak up. I’m certain I bought a few of it incorrect and that there have been many different vital factors. In any case, it’s vital to think about that a lot of the information above will compounded to considerably improve general system effectivity, whether or not it’s in provide chain construction, firm features, or end-product capabilities.
By the way in which, contemplate the truth that 18 executives sat for Q&A, and this time Elon didn’t act entrance and heart on a regular basis. That is very uncommon for an organization this measurement, and it manifests the varied groups’ interdisciplinary competence. It’s perhaps additionally an indication of Elon not being essential for the survival of Tesla, which ought to be comforting for traders, all issues thought-about.
Submit-Occasion Information
A few vital particulars from the occasion have been noticed by Munro & Associates, and so they may have materials influence on how we see Tesla’s capabilities going ahead:
- Hairpin stator design in motor. Noticed on slide 51 within the presentation. In line with Sandy Munro, this will increase the copper wire density within the motor as much as 30% (flat wires as an alternative of spherical), which implies both 30% extra energy or much less weight, however in any case, extra effectivity. Others have carried out this earlier than, however mixed with the elimination of uncommon earth supplies, Sandy thinks this motor might be a step change in each energy output and manufacturing effectivity.
- New inverter board with new kind issue. Sandy and Cory had noticed this new inverter board with a sq. form and separate from the motor casing on the manufacturing unit tour, and so they knew straight away that Tesla was taking one more leap in inverter design, regardless of already being finest within the enterprise. 1000V?
- 48V for the whole lot. On the 48V information, Cory thought this was perhaps a very powerful information of all. He defined how being the primary ever doing this could upend the entire provide business being dialed into 12V. No one is prepared for this, so Tesla must do it primarily by itself. For Tesla to even say it’s doing this alerts that nothing is inconceivable going ahead. The advantages are incalculable.
Different information within the hearsay class:
- Giga Mexico timeline rumoured. One factor that bothered individuals was the dearth of timelines, in need of Tesla’s everlasting “we go as quick as we will.” However now we hear that Giga Mexico might be in-built 9 months, and manufacturing will start inside 12 months of breaking floor. Effectively, if the primary next-gen car rolls out of there in 2025, that may be simply nice too I assume.
- Van to be revealed this yr. If the van is to share the Cybertruck platform, it may very well be revealed quickly. It will make sense, as a result of it’s an enormous addressable market and vans are basically the pickup vans of Europe, however when will Tesla have manufacturing capability for the van. May it’s a Cybervan, as I’ve speculated?
- Wi-fi charging. In the event you look carefully at slide 106, you’ll be able to simply think about a wi-fi charging setup is situated there.
My Take On The Occasion
It’s been actually enjoyable experiencing the myriad of reactions to this occasion. It was lengthy, sure, and never very shiny (shoutout to MeetKevin). I’ll admit that part of me was ready for that “yet one more factor” second, however it by no means got here. I additionally perceive individuals being pissed off over the not-so-choreographed occasion. Clearly, Tesla simply doesn’t care, and we higher get used to it.
I sat in for the complete present, and I knew it will include numerous issues I already knew, and I used to be on edge to catch all bits of reports. It was by far the perfect presentation from any firm I’ve ever seen by way of actual technical info, and by being neither very shiny about it nor tremendous particular, Tesla is — for my part — massively sandbagging.
Tesla Investor Day was absolutely for traders, perhaps not a lot for normal shoppers (shoutout to Rob Maurer). Tesla is all about how it will construct issues and never a lot about when it would achieve this, aside from a number of knowledge factors which subsequently are simpler to recollect: 20 million car manufacturing capability and 1 TWh storage capability by 2030. With what we all know right this moment, that’s two knowledge factors, all it’s a must to do is join them.
Ark Make investments’s Huge concepts 2023 suggests a particular situation relating to complete addressable market (TAM): $40,000 automobile = 10% TAM. $20,000 automobile = 70% TAM (i.e., 50% value discount = 7× TAM). And keep in mind this: Tesla is just not making a $25,000 automobile by eradicating worth and performance from the automobile. Quite the opposite, will probably be much more superior and practical than the present fashions.
I applaud any EV maker that may be capable to shut in on the lower cost targets that really allow EV buy for the plenty. Renault is doing a very good job with the Zoe, and I’m wondering what occurs when Volkswagen launch the ID.2!
I didn’t assume I’d recite Phil Lebeau from CNBC for this sensible line when requested to recap Tesla’s occasion: “That is what occurs once you maintain an investor day and also you give only a few particulars with benchmarks by way of ‘we plan to hit this on this date sooner or later sooner or later.’ What they gave all people was how they plan to disrupt the automotive business over the following 5 to 10 to fifteen years.”
I feel Phil will get it.
Right here is Tesla’s 169-page presentation in full, value a learn.
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